Knowledge Transfer Series #40: TIME the Cycle 3of3
ā¦..CONTINUED FROM Knowledge Transfer Series #39 Real estate stocks start to moveā¦ā¦..ahead of their inevitable fall. They are just now waking up after a lllloooonnnngggg hibernation and I bet the next 4-6 months will be outperformance. I personally will not participate in them because when the bottom falls out of these, LOOK OUT.Ā The lure of juicy dividend payments and rising stock prices WILL get you interested ā I promise it will.Ā But I would resist it.Ā I can find something else ā after all there is so much to BUY.Ā This is how they transfer the problems from their balance sheetā¦ā¦to yours. š The banks (especially unprotected regional) fail in great number as we near the end just before the banking crisis sets in.Ā This TIME it will be related to 3 brewing problems (1) Underwater bonds held at banks, (2) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and (3) AI Bubble burst.Ā We have 6 bankruptcies so far in this cycle.Ā Watch it climb toward 200 by the end. The months of May and October are usually the highest.Ā The ultrarich start selling. Guess how many of the Mag7 founders/CEOs have already started MASSIVE selling in 2024?Ā I mean MASSIVE amounts of selling.Ā You guessed it 7 out of 7! š Field of Dreams. Listen for government spending for new stadiums, biggest buildings, internet for everyone, solar panels for all residential intercity buildings, rapid transit systems, new sports leagues, and the selling/buying of sports teams. Why? Because in slowdown ā when it comes, we pay our utility bills, eat at home, and watch sports.Ā Not much else!Ā But the construction projects will just collapse. š¤Ŗ Stories of young people returning to the housing marketā¦ā¦only to make the most expensive purchase of your lifetime at the exact worst moment ā the (near) peak of real estate prices, +/- 10 years!!! Iāve already seen several on this site buying homes within the last 2 years or probing the market in anticipation of the next rate cut.Ā The key components of a mortgage are length, amount, and rate.Ā Only suckers focus on the rateā¦ā¦..the smart ones know itās the amount that matters most in that equation.Ā Buying a home near the peak of a real estate/banking crisis has always proven to be a mistake.Ā For those that havenāt done it yetā¦ā¦.well I guess you can reread this perspective a couple times before you doā¦ā¦if you so choose! Commodities start to grind higher. Thatās gold, silver, coffee, gas, grains, oil, land, critical metals, miners, uranium, vanadium, lithium, copper, etc.Ā This has been going on undercover for sometime but in February 2024 hit a new level of rise.Ā Expect more.Ā For those that know what exponential curves look likeā¦..once the cycle peaks, you will be able to go back and overlay an exponential template over several select securities in this space. Ā So the TIME to invest in themā¦..is NOW.Ā Knowing which onesā¦ā¦is key. šš Obsession with the Cost of Protein. Start listening for stories how to make your buck āgo furtherā.Ā Is it yogurt, nuts, or beans.Ā Whole grains can be a cheap way too.Ā Hey donāt forget the basics ā eggs, chicken, and milkā¦ā¦are all great ways to get maximum protein for minimum price! š Government Intervention ā Whether itās Dems with programs like Payment Protection, Infrastructure Spending, Subsidies, Rent Cap restrictions, Free Refi, Student Loan Forgiveness, Universal Healthcare, etc. ORĀ Republicans Tariff restrictions, Pushing for much Lower Interest Rates, Tax Cuts, etc. All of this meddling does nothing more than add more money (liquidity fuel) to the inflation problem (fire). ALL OF THESE THINGS JUST PUSH LAND PRICES HIGHER and HIGHER and HIGHER.Ā No matter what they do, itās inescapable.Ā The only way to truly get a soft landing is for all of us to quit buying crap.Ā But we canāt.Ā The government finds ways to put more in your pocketā¦ā¦and we canāt help but spend it. Ā There is ALWAYS talk about a soft landingā¦..until it isnāt.Ā The real estate cycle will end on TIME, everytime.Ā So start building your skill by learning to read and listen to to what Current and Macroeconomic Events are telling us about where we are in the cycle. If you do, youāll know how to position your portfolio NOWā¦ā¦.for later. So in summary, letās not forget what we are saying here.Ā YOU READ TOO FAST IF YOU THINK THIS IS A DOOM AND GLOOM FEAR MONGERING POST.Ā š In fact, itās just the opposite!Ā We are in the meltup phase of a runaway bull market that we WANT to participate in.Ā FOR ME, ITāS BUY, BUY, BUY in the RIGHT stocks at the RIGHT TIME.Ā For those that have read all other Knowledge Transfer Series and other Beskar posts, you know what stocks I think those are. But we will TIME this market because we know thereās an inflection point coming when the meltup phase completes.Ā Stay TUNED IN to @beskar_capital to see how I navigate this unusual ā yet predictable ā phase of the real estate/banking crisis cycle. This is the Way! š šāāļø š šāāļø
12K views
73 Comments
Le Corb@lecorb Ā· 2yr
@beskar_capital for me, you know I do my research, weāre well on our way. Covid only prolonged a path weāve been on for some time, but added so much cash into the equation. $7T sitting on the sidelines with so much FOMO from their missed AI run up. Well, theyāre not going to miss round 2! The drop last week, from massive exits and the significant buyback only adds to your thesis. This is a late secular bull market on the heels of a late economic cycle, and the old sectors are starting to fall into their old places. Thanks @beskar_capital !
Carlos @dividendcarlito Ā· 2yr
Excessive government spending needs to end and interest rates should actually stay high. Once those cuts come, it spells trouble all over the place. It's going to be a fun ride š
Connor @connorj Ā· 2yr
When are you writing a book?
James @figuringitout Ā· 2yr
What do you think about puts for the meltdown part
See the full comment section šSign up for the full Blossom experience!
