The captain awoke from his nap, took one look at the American fleet, and laughed "While I slept, they've been hauling in anchors from the deep and paying with promises due by morning. It's a fine way to calm the deck. Whether it calms the sea is another matter entirely."
I always see people making fun of the statement "Do your own research" or pushing back on people when they suggest it, and I've never understood that because "do your research" is probably the best advice anyone can give you. It puts the ball completely in your court. I remember it took years for me to even strike up the courage to put money into the stock market. Investing seemed so inaccessible to me. Like, what do you mean people just throw their money into the market and "hope it goes well"? I think maybe I was on a Reddit thread and I kept coming across that line, "do your research" and "start learning about the stock market". I realized I'd been waiting for someone to take me under their wing or to maybe find some course, or meet some stock broker on a plane, but I decided to just jump into it. At the time, it seems like a completely different language. P/E? Earnings report? Brokerage account? Liquidity? Margin? The first time I even looked at an earnings report I had no idea what I was looking at. When I first started researching, I thought I wanted to be a day trader, but as I started looking into it and the statistics, the success rate, the taxes involved, I realized I was more of a long term trader. I started watching Youtube videos, reading articles from Bloomberg, Reuter's, The Financial Times, Investing.com, joining Reddit threads, watching the Schwab Network, listening to the Motley Fool podcast at night. It was slow at first, but as I started to understand the terms, and see what one should not invest in - the mistakes and successes - I started to get excited. It was maybe 6 or 7 months before I bought $VNQ and $NVDA. Both of which I had decided on after looking at the holdings and past earnings reports for both of them, respectively. I spent months and months, thinking about both of these, looking at charts, watching interviews, talking to different people, watching videos on Youtube about people's investment theses before I decided to actually buy. So, I never took a course, it wasn't exactly one person who said, "Go, buy this". Each one was an investment thesis that had began through careful consideration, research, debating in my head, and slowly grew like a snowball. That has always stuck with me. Everything that I have ever bought has been after days, weeks, months, even years of reading up and trying to figure out everything I possibly can about $BTC, $CRWV, $DRAM, $NVTS, $AMD, $PLTR, you name it. Have I made some mistakes? Definitely. At the end of the day, research can only take you so far, eventually, you have to jump in the pool and start swimming. But the best advice I could give any brand new investor, is just start teaching yourself. Maybe not everyone is going to be quite to the degree of obsessiveness that I am, but I believe anyone can learn about investing and become a good investor. It's like with anything, the only things you really need are time, motivation, and hard work. Don't wait for someone to come around and try to sell you a fucking course, or think ChatGPT or Claude is going to make you a millionaire. If you REALLY want this, start reading, take the time, teach yourself. We are in the 21st century; we have a wealth of knowledge at our fingertips. So, go get it.
One of the best parts about the Blossom community is how open everyone is sharing knowledge and experiences. To make things easier for anyone just starting their investing journey, here’s a simple glossary to help understand and simplify various terms. Common Terms: Dividend: A share of a company’s profits paid to shareholders, usually quarterly. Ex-Dividend Date: The cutoff date by which you must own a stock to receive its next dividend. ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund): A fund that holds multiple stocks or bonds, traded like a single stock. Covered Call ETF: An ETF that owns stocks and sells call options to generate extra income (higher yield, limited / capped upside). Earnings Report: A company’s quarterly financial performance summary. EPS (Earnings Per Share): A company’s profit divided by its number of shares. Market Cap: A company’s total value (share price × number of shares). ACB: The total amount you’ve paid for an investment, including the purchase price plus any fees or commissions. Book Value: The value of a company according to its financial statements (assets minus liabilities). Yield: Annual dividend as a percentage of the stock/ETF price. Liquidity: How easily an asset can be bought or sold without impacting its price. Volatility: The degree of price fluctuations in a stock or market. Index: A benchmark of stocks (e.g., S&P 500, Nasdaq, TSX). Bull Market: A period of rising stock prices and optimism. Bear Market: A period of declining stock prices and pessimism. False Breakout: When a stock’s price moves above (or below) a key level, making it look like a new trend is starting, but then quickly reverses back. P/E Ratio: Price-to-earnings ratio (stock price ÷ EPS), used to assess valuation. Blue Chip: Well-established, financially strong companies with a track record of stability. Diversification: Spreading investments across assets to reduce risk. Broker: A platform or firm that facilitates buying and selling investments. Limit Order: An order to buy/sell a stock at a specific price or better. Market Order: An order to buy/sell a stock immediately at the current market price. Bid/Ask Spread: The difference between the highest price buyers offer and the lowest price sellers accept. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Investing a fixed amount regularly to reduce the impact of market swings. Capital Gain/Loss: Profit or loss from selling an investment for more/less than its purchase price. IPO: When a company first sells shares to the public. Index Fund: A fund designed to mirror the performance of a market index. Short Selling: Selling borrowed shares, hoping to buy them back cheaper. Margin: Borrowing money from a broker to buy investments, which amplifies gains and losses. Margin Requirement: The minimum amount of your own money (equity) you must maintain in a margin account to open or keep a leveraged investment position. Margin Call: A demand from your broker to deposit more funds or sell assets because your account equity has fallen below the required margin level. Time Horizon: The length of time you plan to hold an investment before needing the money. Short horizons = more risk-sensitive, long horizons = more room to ride out volatility. Stock Split / Reverse Split: A split increases the number of shares (e.g., 2-for-1) while lowering the price per share. A reverse split reduces the number of shares (e.g., 1-for-10) while raising the price per share. Your overall value doesn’t change just the math. Long (Being Long): Buying a stock or asset because you expect the price to go up. Short (Being Short): Selling a stock you don’t own because you expect the price to go down, so you can buy it back cheaper later. TER: The total yearly cost of owning a fund, including the management fee plus other costs like administration, audits, and legal fees. MER: The annual cost that a fund charges for management (includes any leverage costs if used). Management Fee: A portion of the MER that goes directly to the fund managers for running the fund. Withholding Tax: A tax deducted on dividends/distributions from foreign investments (e.g., U.S. dividends to Canadian investors face a 15% withholding in TFSA/Non-Registered accounts). Total Returns: The full picture of an investment’s performance, including both price gains and dividends/distributions. CAGR: The average yearly growth of an investment over time. NAV: The price of one share of a fund (stock or etf) NAV Depreciation: When the fund’s share price goes down over time. Mutual Fund: A pool of money from many investors used to buy a mix of stocks, bonds, or other assets. Bond: A loan you give to a company or government, and they pay you back with interest. Asset: Anything valuable you own that can generate money. Portfolio: Your collection of investments. Option: A contract that gives you the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell a stock at a set price. Future: A contract to buy or sell something at a set price on a future date. REIT: A company that owns real estate and pays investors income from rent. Alpha: A measure of how much better (or worse) an investment did compared to the market. Beta: A measure of how much an investment moves compared to the market. Sharpe Ratio: A way to see if returns are worth the risk taken. Hedging: Protecting your investments from risk. Rebalancing: Adjusting your portfolio back to your target mix of assets. FCF: Free Cash Flow Understanding these terms makes investing far less intimidating. If anyone feels other terms should be included, please share in the comments. I’ll update this post so we can build a complete beginner-friendly resource together! *Sorry tagged a few etfs for reach 🫣read more
With the anticipated Market Correction of 10-40%, I was wondering if I shouldn’t add bonds to my portfolio or buy something like $VBAL or $XBAL to balance off or replace my $ZEQT; when my research brought me to $FBAL. FBAL is Fidelity’s one-ticket balanced ETF. It is interesting, but I am not going to replace my ZEQT with it. FBAL’s target allocation is approximately: • 59% global equities • 39% bonds $XBB • 2% Bitcoin $BTC$FBTC$IBIT$MSBT It has a 0.40% MER, automatically rebalances and pays distributions annually. The equity portion uses four investment factors—momentum, value, quality and low volatility—across Canada, the United States and international markets. Its fixed-income allocation combines Canadian investment-grade bonds with smaller allocations to US, global and higher-yield bonds. FBAL versus ZEQT $XEQT$VEQT FBAL holds only 59% equities, compared with approximately 100% equities in ZEQT. Consequently, FBAL should experience smaller market declines, but it should also produce lower long-term growth. A reasonable long-term return assumption might be: • FBAL: approximately 6% to 7% annually • ZEQT: approximately 7.5% to 9% annually The 15.49% annualized three-year return shown on Blossoms backdating checker is interesting, but it should not be projected into the future. Since its January 2021 inception, FBAL has returned approximately 9.76% annually. It also lost approximately 9.67% in 2022, demonstrating that a balanced ETF can still decline when stocks and bonds fall together. My view FBAL is a genuinely good balanced ETF. I particularly like its combination of multiple equity factors, diversified bonds and a restrained 2% Bitcoin allocation. However, I will not choose it over ZEQT for my own portfolio. With a roughly 17-year investment horizon, a high tolerance for volatility, substantial pension assets and a separate Bitcoin position, FBAL’s 39% bond allocation would probably suppress too much long-term growth. My choice is to stay with ZEQT. FBAL could become more appropriate during the final five years before retirement if greater stability and smaller drawdowns become more important. It is also an excellent standalone investment for someone with moderate risk tolerance, but it is not the strongest growth vehicle for this particular objective; I would consider pairing it with $ZLSU closer to retirement. One of my next articles will be on reversion to the mean, how it applies to the stock market and how like Father Time, it will 💯 always be the end result. What goes up, must go down. This time will not be different. read more
I’m not planning to force a bunch of buys this month. But there are a few stocks I’m very comfortable continuing to build at these levels because I still like the combination of business quality, long term opportunity and valuation. Here’s what I’m watching and why: 1. Brookfield $BN $BN is still one of my favorite long term compounders in the market. I like that I’m getting exposure to infrastructure, power, data centers and the broader AI buildout without taking on the same level of risk as some of my higher growth names. Brookfield also has the scale, capital and asset base to keep finding opportunities across cycles, which makes it a name I’m comfortable consistently adding to over time. 2. Netflix $NFLX I’m still building my $NFLX position. Netflix does not need crazy subscriber growth anymore for the thesis to work. Revenue can keep compounding while margins improve, free cash flow grows and buybacks shrink the share count. Advertising also gives Netflix another monetization lever that is still relatively early compared with the size of the platform. 3. Uber $UBER $UBER remains one of my favorite risk reward setups. The core rides and delivery business is already producing significant free cash flow, and that gives Uber a strong foundation to build on. Advertising, Uber One, cross platform usage and AV all create additional upside, but AV is the piece I’m watching closest because Uber could become a major distribution layer for autonomous transportation without having to manufacture the vehicles itself. 4. ServiceNow $NOW I continue to think the disconnect between $NOW’s business and the way the stock has been treated is interesting. The core workflow business is still growing at an impressive rate for a company this large, while AI could expand ServiceNow’s role inside the enterprise. My long term thesis is that ServiceNow can become a control layer connecting workflows, data, automation and AI agents across an organization. 5. Amazon $AMZN $AMZN is one of those stocks I’m almost always comfortable adding when the valuation makes sense. AWS, advertising and AI infrastructure are becoming increasingly important to the business, while Amazon’s retail operation continues getting more efficient. The part I like most is that Amazon does not need explosive revenue growth from here if a larger portion of future revenue and profit comes from businesses with much better margins. One stock I still love but probably won’t force in September: SoFi $SOFI I still have a very high conviction in $SOFI. But position size matters. I already have a large position, so I don’t need to keep buying just because I like the company. If the stock gets cheap enough again, that will change quickly.read more
"The stock is not the company and the company is not the stock" Over roughly the past two years $RDDT has: Free cash flow +372% Total revenues +114% Stock price down -1% 🤔
Trump has reportedly contacted Apple about renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America” on Apple Maps. 🇺🇸 📍 Google Maps has already made the change for U.S. users. 🇨🇦 Canada, however, continues to call it Lake Ontario. 🍁🇺🇸 Another chapter in the Canada U.S. trade tensions?
What’s your favorite ETF to hold in a taxable brokerage account? I’m looking for something that’s tax efficient, low cost, and pairs well with individual stocks. Right now I’m considering: $VUG $VOO $VTI $VOOG I like the idea of having an ETF as the core of the account while still being able to add individual stocks around it. What would you pick and why?read more
Sometimes, well... 💩 happens. This summer, we booked an Airbnb and it went south. South, so badly, that we cancelled within an hour of arriving and booked a new place that was free of mold and cat pee. 🤮 Unfortunately, there was a marathon in town, so virtually everything was booked, except the place we got and a few other places that were over $20k for our 10 day stay (WTF?!) We were already stretching the budget at $2100 and the new booking cost an extra $2300! What's the point of all this?? Well, if it weren't for the fact, that I recently took a significant (for me) position in $MA, that gained 17.5% very quickly, it would've stung really badly. But, it just stung a little badly 😜 If you don't have a safety net and/or some investments that are quick and easy to liquidate, you can end up in a lot of trouble, so keep that savings fund going, my friends, regardless of what you put in it, or how you manage it! And hey... at least I still have my $V 🙌🤩read more
I want to know, seriously? Is it the dividend (distribution)? The performance? The low fees? Or did you eventually see enough people on the internet say something like, “$SCHD is the best dividend ETF ever". And ,you figured, 400,000 Redditors and YouTubers couldn't possibly ALL be wrong? 😅 Either way, there's something about SCHD that I believe many investors don't fully appreciate. Recently, 22 stocks disappeared from the ETF.... big names like Cisco and AbbVie... bye bye 👋 And they weren't replaced with the same old names So us investors need to ask ourselves....If I'm buying SCHD for the long term... do I actually know what I'm buying for the long term? The reason is that SCHD is NOT a static portfolio of dividend growth stocks. And depending on WHY YOU OWN IT, some of what I found might matter more than you think. For example, here's something interesting about its performance. SCHD looked remarkably strong when the market was getting hammered.... Then the market environment changed... And so did the SCHD story. Why... why, WHY? You need that answered And then there's the dividend (distribution).... I've seen SCHD described as the perfect retirement ETF because you can supposedly live off the income and never sell a share... Sounds like the perfect solution to a difficult problem. However... is that actually the best way to think about retirement income? And if you're Canadian, there's another question you should probably ask before buying it... Which account is the best for a high yield ETF like SCHD? In my latest deep dive, I put SCHD under the microscope... No “SCHD is amazing, buy it now” nonsense that you see on tikytoktok from me as you know 😂 I just go into the methodology, the numbers, the risks, the tradeoffs and my honest verdict/opinion at the end... ALWAYS remember, even a beautiful, high quality shoe can still be a TERRIBLE FIT 👠 So why are YOU invested in SCHD or why are you thinking about it? https://youtu.be/B2kxkIyHjPkread more
I am currently 47 years old. Unfortunately in that time frame I have lost a lot of family members. Some (most) were accidents, some to age, some to cancer, and one to suicide. That’s 11 deaths total. Only 1 person out of 11 had a will. When you are grieving the last thing you want to do is close an estate up. It’s even harder if nothing has been prepared in advance. After the initial shock of the death settles (the phase where everyone is usually nice), greed comes through in a most alarming manner. I’ve watched people turn into monsters. Make sure you have a will!!!! or people will fight.  I know most people hate thinking about their death or their spouses death but honestly it’s just a fact of life. I’ve personally been the executor of 2 estates now. This is my advice: 1. If your young get life insurance. If you’re retired it’s not worth it. 2. Make sure you have a will. 3. Make sure you have a personal directive. 4. Make sure you have a power of attorney set up. 5. If your married make your spouse the beneficiary of your TFSA and RRSP(has to be done through the account not the will), they will roll into the spouses account without taxation. 6. If you’re married, and you own a house, make sure both names are on the title, joint tenant, NOT tenant in common. This activates right of survivorship on property and doesn’t have to go through the estate. 7. If you’re married, both people should have their name on all the vehicles, joint, otherwise it’s a headache after death. 8. Buy a file folding system. I have a plastic one that has a clasp and handle. 9. Put EVERYTHING in this file folder that would be needed if you died tomorrow. a) all land titles B) information on house insurance so it can either be eventually canceled or name changed over. C) your will (or the location of your will),  power of attorney, and personal directive D) the information for your car, car insurance, and registration on vehicles. E) information on life insurance. F) all current year papers needed for filing your taxes. Because the survivor will have to do it and will need that information. G) where your household bills are. ALL OF THEM, electricity, gas, Netflix, magazine, subscriptions everything you can think of that is in their name. Because you are going to have to cancel them. H) their credit card information where to contact to cancel the cards I) birth certificate, SIN numbers, marriage, license, etc. J) information on all your investments accounts, bank accounts, etc. K) anything else you can think of for your situation If you’re married, I’d have one box per person. When you die, the funeral home will issue many death certificates. And your lawyer will give you copies of the will. These will be needed to change over any accounts. Everything else goes through the estate which is taxed and the lawyers take their fees so I’d avoid this as much as possible especially if you’re married. This is why having property in both people‘s names is so important because it doesn’t have to go through probate. I am widowed now and I have my black file folder and my two remaining children know if something happens to me, all they have to do is grab the folder. Everything they need to take care of my estate will be located in this folder. At the beginning of every year, I open this file up and go through everything to make sure it’s up-to-date. If you are young and do not own much or can’t afford a will, you can draft one up but it must be handwritten to be classified as a legal document. You cannot type it out!! If you’re not worth much, everything will most likely be sold to pay your bills and cover your funeral expenses. But you can state who your executor will be in your handwritten will.  Disclaimer I’m not a lawyer or an accountant and this is not legal advice. Talk to a lawyer and talk to an accountant. Make sure everything is set up for you and your situation. These are situations that I personally ran into. Good luck Also I’ll add in. IF you have a lot of assets make an appointment with your accountant first. They will tell you how to properly set things up. Then take that information to your lawyer. read more
I’m obviously biased but I find the Beevis daily summary so useful… love the personalized news about my portfolio (even when my portfolio is getting smoked 😅) P.S. We also updated the PRO geography widget to combine stocks and ETFs into one view + have a portfolio overlap widget coming in 2 weeks 🫡 #1 focus is still the feed improvements (which are well underway) but thought I’d share these quick updates
We talk a lot on here about what we’re investing in, how much we’re putting away and how we can grow our portfolios. @jesswang this photo is for you and @williamwang23 Today I did a different kind of investing. I went for a walk with my family, we had breakfast together and then I went fishing with my son. Tonight it’s movie time with popcorn at home. Nothing exciting and we really didn’t spend much money. But it was a great day. I started investing seriously at 50, so I know I have less time to grow our wealth. That’s one of the reasons I invest as much as I do. But having less time works both ways. I don’t want to be so focused on putting every extra dollar away for tomorrow that I forget to enjoy what I have today. And enjoying today doesn’t have to mean spending a bunch of money. Today was a pretty good example of that. I’m still going to invest aggressively and keep working towards our goals. That’s important to me. But so is this. How do you find the balance between investing for the life you want tomorrow and making sure you’re enjoying the life you have today? read more
The post is all in the title, I'm interested to know the purpose behind others investing decisions. Statistically most people underperform in the markets, and owning individual companies is the leading cause. Unknown gambling on companies without any proper due diligence, no consideration for portfolio construction, and unknown risk are how the average retail investors plays the game. Are you different? If not, whats the purpose of added risk premium for underperformance?
RE-POST of the greatest post (self-proclaimed 😂) in Blossom history for your benefit and enjoyment! 😂👍 Make sure to read today's retrospective commentary down below the post as well! 🤓🧠 Originally published on Blossom on March 12th, 2024 Please find retrospective commentary at the end. This is the TIME to invest in commodities. You will want to assess your true level of experience and pay attention to the experienced ones that care about this community. For now and the next couple of years, it’s BUY, BUY, BUY… Here’s a laundry list of reasons why: (1) Ego-maniac Jamie Dimon just said in March 2024 that he puts a hard recession at 65% while advising the Fed to hold off cutting rate until at least June. These statements may seem at odds - but he’s telling us the economy is really humming and needs to slow rather than throwing more gasoline on the fire (easing monetary policy) that will make the inevitable recession that much harder. (2) Inflation has been re-accelerating and Dimon noted that as well calling for likely stagflation. (3) The markets are signaling the same as precious metals continue an everlasting climb. (4) Fuel prices are creeping up every week and the official “driving season” isn’t even here yet. (5) Miners across the globe are issuing notes to increase capital for exploration projects. (6) History dating back to the early 1800’s show that History repeats - or at least rhymes for the final years of the meltup before the cycle ends. (7) Listen to the companies themselves on their earnings calls for their FY2024 outlook. I do across industries - they are all talking about how earnings will grow but be impacted (to various extents) by increasing inflation. (8) Most companies' forward earnings estimates are rising which is not a sign that the economy needs further boosting. (9) These Biden government moves to increase liquidity (home buyer credits, credit card interest fee reduction, free refinance, etc.) are going to make the reinflation that much worse. (10) The cycle always ends in collapse and will take the markets (as a whole) down with it. The great news is that it takes TIME to develop as the government will do all kinds of creative banking and financial engineering to delay and attempt to prevent it (which will make the inevitable recession that much worse). That means Blossomers have a ~2-year meltup that will continue to deliver phenomenal returns before the collapse. Follow me and I will keep you updated as we progress through this final stage. This is going to be awful when it happens as the banks find exotic investments to package and transfer to the masses, who - as always - will be left holding the bag. Start counting the number of TIMES you hear “CRE” every day and record it on paper. Watch this grow over TIME. CRE will eventually take it all down. Remember, these are just mortgages for empty office space, etc. whose owner hasn’t been receiving any revenue to pay the monthly payments... for YEARS. They are going to do their absolute best to find ways to put some of this into all of our portfolios. To avoid it, buy commodities now. Oil and gas, grains, metals, miners, precious metals, homebuilders, logistics, industrials, banks (not regional or any that have CRE). Other speculative assets will also perform well. That’s small/micro cap, crypto, AI, and biotech. But beware, you must monitor the exit point as it all goes higher and higher. I suspect it has a couple years left of absolutely amazing returns where you can realize a decade of returns in just 2 years. Retrospective Commentary — September 1, 2026 WHAT A RE-READ. This is the greatest post (self-proclaimed 😂🤣) in the history of the Blossom Social App. 🏆👍 And what a playbook we laid out for our followers – many of whom have been perfectly positioned for what the past 30 months have brought us. Let’s start by looking at the performance of commodities and related equities since March 12, 2024: Now, since January 1, 2025: And finally, year-to-date: The picture is very clear to us: commodities have been among the major outperformers. Notice how, since January 2025, the major indices have underperformed virtually all of the main commodities and the equities tied to them. Beskar Capital was accumulating shares throughout 2024, right ahead of this outperformance.. and has captured most of it. Can you imagine the MASSIVE returns – both realized and unrealized – on our positions? You’ll find links to a few sell transactions at the end of this article. 🏆 Precious metals and miners lead the way. Then energy has been slowly closing the gap, particularly since February of this year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. We’ll get into this in future KTS posts, but escalating geopolitical tensions are often a symptom of the late stages of the real estate/banking crisis cycle. And now as September approaches, we’re starting to see $DBA outperform, while precious metals and miners appear to be emerging from their consolidation and preparing for their next leg higher. And those technical patterns on several energy names… on my. The main dish has yet to be served! 😂 INFLATION At the TIME of the original publication, almost nobody was talking about inflation. Now? It’s on everyone’s lips - you can’t escape it. Your aunt. Your neighbor. Your barber. Everyone. Inflation has remained well above the Fed’s 2% target for 65 months now and was sitting at 3.4% in the latest data reported (July). And at last Friday’s Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was adamant: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH. How could you be so prescient Beskar? It’s the cycle 😉… but don’t worry, you’ll learn it all as we re-post this whole series. But will it help you in the TIME you need it too? That’s different! The clock is ticking for this knowledge transfer. 😉 GOVERNMENT LIQUIDITY INJECTIONS Trump pushing for rate and tax cuts, the Trump Accounts, Bessent recently announcing a $4 billion repurchase of long-dated Treasury bonds…. Etc etc etc. The list goes on. Liquidity remains a major force driving this market and it will continue to do so. SPECULATION & SMALL CAPS We’ve seen massive speculation and parabolic price action across various themes in the small and micro cap space, both in natural resources and technology/AI. One of our favorite examples of this stage of the cycle is the quantum computing space. $RGTI is a favorite to exemplify this as the company reached a $30 billion market capitalization while generating just $7 million in revenue. As the credit environment starts to tighten in the late stages of this meltup phase, this is the kind of stock that will go to ZERO! $IJR and $IWM have also been outperforming the broader market over the past 365 days. BIOTECH $XBI broke out of its 10-year consolidation channel last fall, returning just over 70% over the past 365 days – as expected during the final stages of the real estate/banking crisis cycle. AMAZING RETURNS HAVE INDEED BEEN GENERATED We are now sitting on significant gains across both our equity positions and our derivatives positions, positioning for both rising and falling securities in this crosscurrent volatile market. Here are links to a mere fraction of our stock and CALL LEAP options selling spree in early 2026, where we realized THOUSANDS of percentage of returns in less than 24 months: $HL CALL LEAPS: +2,793% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-REMAINING-dollar7-2027Hecla-Mining-CALL-LEAPS__POST-1769110239062-bXvcd0oH_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $USAS: +1,636% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-HALF-of-Americas-Gold-and-Silver__POST-1771519264147-SPllPnuO_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $RTX CALL LEAPS: +1,313% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Get-Ready-For-It-SOLD-1-CALL-LEAP-in-RTX-Corp__POST-1771349946146-IyvDwoZ1_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $PAAS CALL LEAPS: +1,353% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-FINAL-2-Pan-American-CALL-LEAPS__POST-1769181247987-x57v1yTP_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $EQX CALL LEAPS: +1,100% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-1-of-2-Equinox-Gold-CALL-LEAPS__POST-1771518541925-4gbRXXff_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $XOM CALL LEAPS: +1,100% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-HALF-OF-ALL-CALL-LEAPS-IN-ALL-EXXONMOBIL__POST-1771517433311-iFGSPJDF_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $HP CALL LEAPS: +696% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-4-CALLS-of-Helmerich-and-Payne__POST-1769095162122-xq5FhbB4_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $SLB CALL LEAPS: +493% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-20-CALL-LEAPS-in-SLB__POST-1771522682349-QC25VtnG_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $OPEN CALL LEAPS: +420% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-FINAL-2-CALL-LEAPS-in-Opendoor-Technologi__POST-1770230292027-sCuJpfSh_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $LTBR: +311% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-Lightbridge-Corporation__POST-1768407320789-Wmxse4N2_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML $VRT: +206.42% https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-OUT-of-Vertiv-Holdings__POST-1768405759024-4MvvbZNc_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML WHAT’S NEXT? While the major indices have continued reaching ALL-TIME HIGHS, as one would expect in a raging bull market fueled by liquidity, the cracks have been getting wider and deeper. Did you notice parts of the property market seeing prices starting to decline? Did you notice the cracks emerging in private credit? Did you notice the massive increase in debt issuance? We’ll get to all of this as we continue working our way through the reposts of the legacy KTS series. I always give you my best. 🏆 This is the Way! 🏄🌊 THE KTS SERIES We’re fast-forwarding the legacy KTS series (#1-91) – originally published on Blossom – at a rate of 3 posts per week here on Blossom & X. As we approach the inflection point in the real estate/banking crisis cycle, these posts cannot come fast enough for the latecomers. If you want to fast-track your learning, you can get access to the entire series at once with the KTS e-books available on our website. Our website also gives you exclusive access to every subsequent KTS post, starting with #92 up to currently #115 …… and counting, as new KTS posts are published every Sunday now due to the urgency. Those remain membership exclusive. A paid membership website also gives you access to our full TOOL SUITE: 📖 Weekly KTS posts 🏄 Weekly SECTOR SURFER 📝 All TRADES + RATIONALE 🔭 Beskar INDICATOR INSIGHT 🏒 Beskar BREAKAWAY 🐳 Beskar WHALE WATCHER 🐺 Beskar WOLF TRACKER 🐕 Beskar DIGGER DOG 🧑🧑🧒🧒 Beskar STEAD (Community feed) 💯 And much, much moreread more
Saw the post by @surya so had to dig into this. As a Disney $dis shareholder I have to keep track of what my competitors are doing AND what they might have to do. Netflix $NFLX executives have considered making third-party streaming services available within its app, according to a report from The New York Times. The recent discussions reportedly centered around bringing Peacock and Fox One to Netflix, though it’s unclear whether the streaming giant would sell subscriptions to the other services or add their content to its app. I stated they should've done this from the start around Aug 13th when I gave my take on Bill Ackman's thesis on Netflix. As a Disney shareholder, this just validates the companies moat. https://www.theverge.com/streaming/983741/netflix-open-app-peacock-fox-oneread more
Tomorrow is Tim Cook's last day as the CEO of Apple $AAPL The man that took it from $350B —> $4.7T in his 15-year tenure. Truly an end of an era. At the end of the day.. Tim Cook cooked.
I’ve been a little obsessed with learning about the equity risk premium lately. I think it gives us a much better framework for thinking about what a reasonable long-term return actually is, rather than just looking backwards at what stocks happened to return. Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at NYU Stern and someone the media has nicknamed the “Dean of Valuation,” publishes an ongoing estimate of the implied equity risk premium. The ERP is basically the extra return investors demand to own stocks instead of a risk-free asset. As of August 1, Damodaran’s implied ERP for the U.S. was 4.28%, with a U.S. Treasury rate of 4.74% used as the risk-free rate. Very roughly, that gives you something around a 9% expected nominal return for the market as a starting point. That does NOT mean stocks are going to return 9% next year. Damodaran himself makes that distinction pretty clearly. He says you cannot predict what markets will do over the next year, but when looking over the next five to ten years, “there is predictive power.” He also says the equity risk premium “underlies almost everything we do as investors.” The more I learn about it, the more intuitive that becomes. For a Canadian analogy, imagine I can buy Government of Canada T-bills and earn a relatively safe return. If I’m going to leave that behind and own stocks, where the outcome is much less certain, I need some additional expected return to compensate me. But there is also a counterbalancing force that I think is really important: competition. Public stock markets are incredibly open and liquid. There are millions of investors, institutions, pension funds, hedge funds and algorithms constantly comparing opportunities and looking for attractive expected returns. Imagine relatively safe assets are yielding 4% or 5%, but stocks somehow offer a 20% long-term expected return without requiring some extraordinary ingredient to produce it. That would be an insanely attractive deal. People would buy stocks. Prices would rise. And paying a higher price today lowers the return you can expect going forward. Capital keeps flowing toward the opportunity until the expected reward becomes more reasonably balanced with what investors have to give up or take on to earn it. None of this requires markets to be perfectly efficient. Damodaran himself says markets “overshoot” and “undershoot.” Mispricings happen. But there is a big difference between saying markets can be wrong and saying an enormous, obvious, persistent opportunity can just sit there indefinitely in one of the most competitive markets in the world. This is where I think discussions about “sustainable” returns sometimes get misunderstood. A 20% total return can obviously happen. It can happen next year. It can happen several years in a row. Realized returns are noisy. The question is whether 20% is a reasonable long-term expected return to build your assumptions around. If you expect to sustainably earn 15%, 20% or 25% over very long periods, there has to be some kind of secret sauce explaining why your expected return is so much higher than what the broader market is pricing. Maybe it’s leverage applied to a positive expected risk premium. Maybe you have exposure to some compensated source of risk. Maybe it’s genuine skill, an informational or structural advantage, or a persistent market inefficiency. But simply taking “more risk” isn’t enough of an explanation. You can take all kinds of risk without increasing expected value. And even if the secret sauce is real, there is another question: why should it persist? If other investors can identify it, access it and scale it, capital should eventually flow toward the same opportunity. Prices adjust and at least some of that excess expected return gets competed away. So extraordinary returns are not impossible. But extraordinary long-term expected returns require an extraordinary explanation, and even a genuine edge may not survive forever.read more
