$MU WATCHING THE NEXT SUPPORT... $MU bounced almost perfectly from my first downside target at $847. I’m not chasing the rebound here. If the rising wedge breaks lower, the next area I’m watching for a potential bounce is around $780. That’s the level that matters to me now. If buyers step in there, I’ll reassess the setup. If it cuts straight through, I’m not forcing the trade. Momentum can change quickly in semis, so I’m keeping the levels simple and letting price confirm the move. What’s your first trade idea? Let’s see what the market gives us. read more
I am currently 47 years old. Unfortunately in that time frame I have lost a lot of family members. Some (most) were accidents, some to age, some to cancer, and one to suicide. That’s 11 deaths total. Only 1 person out of 11 had a will. When you are grieving the last thing you want to do is close an estate up. It’s even harder if nothing has been prepared in advance. After the initial shock of the death settles (the phase where everyone is usually nice), greed comes through in a most alarming manner. I’ve watched people turn into monsters. Make sure you have a will!!!! or people will fight.  I know most people hate thinking about their death or their spouses death but honestly it’s just a fact of life. I’ve personally been the executor of 2 estates now. This is my advice: 1. If your young get life insurance. If you’re retired it’s not worth it. 2. Make sure you have a will. 3. Make sure you have a personal directive. 4. Make sure you have a power of attorney set up. 5. If your married make your spouse the beneficiary of your TFSA and RRSP(has to be done through the account not the will), they will roll into the spouses account without taxation. 6. If you’re married, and you own a house, make sure both names are on the title, joint tenant, NOT tenant in common. This activates right of survivorship on property and doesn’t have to go through the estate. 7. If you’re married, both people should have their name on all the vehicles, joint, otherwise it’s a headache after death. 8. Buy a file folding system. I have a plastic one that has a clasp and handle. 9. Put EVERYTHING in this file folder that would be needed if you died tomorrow. a) all land titles B) information on house insurance so it can either be eventually canceled or name changed over. C) your will (or the location of your will),  power of attorney, and personal directive D) the information for your car, car insurance, and registration on vehicles. E) information on life insurance. F) all current year papers needed for filing your taxes. Because the survivor will have to do it and will need that information. G) where your household bills are. ALL OF THEM, electricity, gas, Netflix, magazine, subscriptions everything you can think of that is in their name. Because you are going to have to cancel them. H) their credit card information where to contact to cancel the cards I) birth certificate, SIN numbers, marriage, license, etc. J) information on all your investments accounts, bank accounts, etc. K) anything else you can think of for your situation If you’re married, I’d have one box per person. When you die, the funeral home will issue many death certificates. And your lawyer will give you copies of the will. These will be needed to change over any accounts. Everything else goes through the estate which is taxed and the lawyers take their fees so I’d avoid this as much as possible especially if you’re married. This is why having property in both people‘s names is so important because it doesn’t have to go through probate. I am widowed now and I have my black file folder and my two remaining children know if something happens to me, all they have to do is grab the folder. Everything they need to take care of my estate will be located in this folder. At the beginning of every year, I open this file up and go through everything to make sure it’s up-to-date. If you are young and do not own much or can’t afford a will, you can draft one up but it must be handwritten to be classified as a legal document. You cannot type it out!! If you’re not worth much, everything will most likely be sold to pay your bills and cover your funeral expenses. But you can state who your executor will be in your handwritten will.  Disclaimer I’m not a lawyer or an accountant and this is not legal advice. Talk to a lawyer and talk to an accountant. Make sure everything is set up for you and your situation. These are situations that I personally ran into. Good luck Also I’ll add in. IF you have a lot of assets make an appointment with your accountant first. They will tell you how to properly set things up. Then take that information to your lawyer. read more
$ONDS MOMENTUM ISN’T DEAD YET... I’ve been watching $ONDS closely after that 2W momentum-cloud test. Price dipped into the zone, held, and then pushed higher. That’s exactly the kind of reaction I want to see but I’m not assuming it will repeat forever. The next hurdles are $11 and $14. If momentum survives those levels, I’m watching the $19–$26 area next. This one can move fast, so I’m keeping position size and downside in check. Think volatility stays high? Risk first. read more
Since the common starting point shown, SpaceX (SPCX) has delivered the strongest relative total return at -34.49%, outperforming all three SpaceX income ETFs during the decline. Among the income strategies, Ninepoint SpaceX HighShares ETF (SXHI) has performed best at -37.34%, followed by Purpose SpaceX Yield Shares ETF (SPXY) at -38.03% and Harvest SpaceX Enhanced High Income Shares ETF (SPXE) at -39.68%. Importantly, SXHI trails the underlying SpaceX exposure by only 2.85 percentage points, compared with a 3.54-point shortfall for SPXY and a 5.19-point shortfall for SPXE. Among the three income ETFs, SXHI leads SPXY by 69 basis points and SPXE by 234 basis points. Overall, direct SpaceX exposure has held up best during the decline, but SXHI has captured the greatest proportion of the underlying's total return among the income strategies.
When I get paid, I immediately transfer all my cash to $SGOV and wait to buy on dips in $TQQQ and $QQQM. As well as other stocks like $AVGO$MSFT$NVDA and $MU. I also throw a little in my more defensive stocks like $JNJ and $UNH. My cash is working 24/7 for me. What do you guys do?
The consensus PT for $ZETA is $30.36 with 14% upside from today's price The low is $26 (~breakeven YoY) and the high is $44 (65.5% upside) (According to StockAnalysis)
August Portfolio Update YTD = 20.42% vs 12.81% (S&P 500) My portfolio is split into two parts: core long-term holdings that I accumulate and rarely sell, and moonshot/high-beta stocks where I’m more active with tactical trades. My moonshot strategy is much more dependent on macro conditions, market momentum, and hot themes, so positioning can change quickly. I like to keep this 10% of my total portfolio. My core portfolio also includes ETFs like $VFV$QQC , $VCN , $VDY and $ZGLD . I like ETFs to make up around 10-20% of my total portfolio, acting as the foundation and helping lower overall risk. As a stock picker, I still want a healthy balance in case my individual stocks don’t perform as well as the broader market. Over time, I plan to gradually increase my ETF exposure toward 50% of my portfolio due to increased volatility in the market. Top 3: $AMD — AI is increasing demand for powerful server CPUs. As AI agents handle more tasks, data centers need more processing power. AMD benefits from growing EPYC server demand and continued market-share gains against Intel. $GOOG — Gemini is becoming a bigger part of Google’s products and revenue. Google Cloud keeps growing, more companies are using its AI chips, and YouTube remains very strong. Google owns many pieces of the AI ecosystem. $MU — AI data centers need huge amounts of memory, keeping demand strong and supply tight. Micron is spending heavily to increase production, while future growth could also come from robots, vehicles and other AI-powered machines. Bottom 3: (new buys) $KLAC — Makes the inspection equipment chipmakers use to find tiny defects during manufacturing. As AI chips, HBM memory and advanced packaging become more complex, manufacturers need more inspection steps, creating higher demand for KLA’s tools. $MRVL — Builds custom AI chips and the networking technology that moves data between GPUs, CPUs and memory. Growth is being driven by hyperscaler custom silicon, faster AI networking, optical connectivity and its expanding NVIDIA partnership. $CRDO — Makes high-speed connectivity chips and active electrical cables that connect servers, GPUs and switches inside AI data centers. As AI clusters get larger, Credo benefits from the need for faster, lower-power and more reliable connections. Moonshots: $NBIS — AI companies need more computing power, and Nebius is rapidly building data centers to meet that demand. Its partnership with Nvidia, growing customer base and plans for much more capacity give it a long runway for growth. $RKLB — Rocket Lab is growing beyond simply launching rockets. Electron launches bring steady business, its space systems division keeps expanding, and Neutron could unlock much larger missions, government contracts and satellite launches if execution goes well. $AAOI — AI data centers need faster connections between their chips and servers. AAOI makes the optical equipment that moves this data. Demand for its faster 800G and 1.6T products is rising, while the company is expanding production. Not financial advice; always do your own research. read more
I'm the guy who did what you're not supposed to do: Several years ago, I was a space nerd and I had full conviction in a tiny, $2B market cap company: $RKLB I actually invested around the time of the IPO, building a modest position when the price was hovering between $10 and $15. Then, the speculative covid bubble burst, and the price plummeted to around $4 for a very long time. Being down 60%, I didn't panic sell. In fact, I doubled & tripled down several times. My final position was 5,500 shares at a cost basis of $5.95 USD. At the time, this was half my contribution room in my TFSA, which worked out to ~$42k CAD. There are many stories where a huge bet like this doesn't pan out, but in my case it succeeded tremendously. At RKLB's peak price, my TFSA was valued at $1.1M... as it stands now, my port is worth just under $800k as of this post. Dealing with both a hypervolatile portfolio and hectic life circumstances have numbed me to the day to day fluctuations of the market. At least, that has been my personal experience. I have had days where my portfolio is up almost $200k and days where I was down over $100k. These single-day fluctuations are greater than my annual salary at my day job. Crazy to think about, but I have been able to maintain a mental disconnect between the numbers on the screen and my day to day emotions. Have I trimmed? Yes. I sold 500 shares when RKLB was around $130. This doubled my initial investment and I only gave up 9% of my total position. I know the wise thing to do is to de-risk further, but RKLB is still my biggest conviction play and I am willing to let it ride as I don't need the money right now. If you want my future long-term picks, those would be $GRAB and $KLAR . The proceeds of my 500 share RKLB trim primarily went into these two stocks. Yes... I am still trying to beat the market. Stock picking generally doesn't work out in the long run, but I am having fun and I am confident in my theses for these two companies. I'll make another post in the future regarding my reasoning, so please follow if you find this stuff interesting or if you want to laugh at me if I lose it all. 😆 read more
$ASTS THIS IS WHY I’M PAYING ATTENTION!! I think the market may be underestimating the model here. ASTS doesn’t need to own the customer. Its BlueBird satellites can connect regular smartphones at up to ~200 Mbps, while nearly 60 MNO partners keep the customer relationship, spectrum and billing. That gives AST access to 3B+ subscribers without requiring new phones or apps. The bigger question for me is execution. AST keeps 50% of subscription/day-pass revenue, with estimates going from ~3M subscribers and ~$300M revenue in 2027 to ~30M and ~$2B by 2030. Big opportunity, but a lot still has to go right. What’s your first trade idea? Let’s see what the market gives us. read more
🔥 On Saturday over 2,000 Blossomers came out from all across Canada for an incredible day of learning and connection! I was shocked to see close to 1/3 of folks travelled from outside of Toronto to join us, huge thanks to everyone who made the trip! ⚡️ The energy during the day was absolutely buzzing and it was so awesome to meet so many members of the Blossom community! Special shout out to Blossom's Creator of the Year @jacobb and Blossom's Rising Star @nettspend who won our community-nominated Blossom awards 👏 🌱 Blossom has grown from an idea, to an app, to a movement and BlossomCon is the biggest testament to that. To see 2,000 folks from all different walks of life take time out of their weekend to connect, learn, and build financial literacy together is exactly what Blossom is all about and I am so fired up to keep building for this amazing community 💕 😍 Can't wait for BlossomCon Vancouver and New York!!! (https://www.blossomsocial.com/blossomcon2026) 👏 Special shout out to the Harvest ETFs team for being our Headline sponsor for the 3rd year in a row and to all our amazing sponsors for making this event possible 🙏
Since so many people ask how to invest in this sector, or this country, or this asset, I’ve decided to make a comprehensive guide on how you can invest in specific areas. This is NOT portfolio advice, simply information about tickers that you can research yourself. Save this for later so you have a list of ETFs to come back to! Canada: $XIU$XIC$ZCN All expose you to the TSX in Canada. These ETFs consist of all top Canadian companies and access to our national stock exchange. $VCB$VGV$VLB$VAB$VSB$VSC$XBB$XCB Expose you to Canadian bonds; whether it be long-term, short-term, corporate, government, etc. $VDY$XEI$CDZ Expose you to Canadian dividend companies $XRE$ZRE$VRE Give access to Canadian REITs $ZEB$XFN$RBNK Lets you buy the Canadian banks USA: $VFV$ZSP$XSP$XUS$HXS Lets you buy the S&P 500 (learn about hedged vs. unhedged in my other post) $XQQ$HXQ$ZQQ All give you access to the NASDAQ 100 $IWR$VO$VOE$VOT$IJH$SCHM Lets you buy US Midcaps $IJR$IWM$VB$VBR$VBK$SCHA Lets you buy US Smallcaps $DIV$SPYD$RDIV$DHS$VIG$SCHD$VYM$DGRO$SDY Give access from small to high dividend US companies $VTI$ITOT Lets you buy the whole US market $TLT$IEF$VGIT$GOVT$SHY$VGLT Give access to US bonds $XLC$XLY$XLP$XLE$XLF$XLV$XLI$XLB$XLRE$XLK$XLU All give you access to each sector in the S&P such as financials, energy, healthcare, etc. International: $XEQT$FEQT$VEQT$ZEQT Give you an all-in-one exposure to Canada, US, emerging and global markets. $VEA$IEFA$SCHF$SPDW$EFV$EFA Give access to general international exposure $EWJ$EWU$EWC Gives direct access to developed international countries $INDA$MCHI$EWT$EWY$EWZ$EWW$EIDO$EWM Gives direct access to emerging international countries Assets: $KILO$PHYS$CGL Let’s you buy gold directly through ETFs $SVR$HUZ Let you buy silver through ETFs Savings/Interest: $CASH$HISA$PSA$HSAV Access to Canadian savings and interest payments $HSUV-U $PSU-U $HISU-U Access to US savings and interest payments There’s so many ETFs I didn’t go into with dozens of categories, but this should give you some basic starting point to look into your ETF investments. This is simply the starting point, when choosing your investments always research the ETFs, what they provide to you, their fees, your goals, your risk, and what you’re looking to get out of investing. As always do your research and happy investing! Subscribe to the newsletter: relatablefinance.substack.com read more
A late night gift for fellow investors on Blossom who might be starting out their journey… this is a post about all the wonderful tools I use to research and monitor stocks, ETFs, Market News, Sector rotations and Insider/institutional Trading activity. I call it my investment tech stack, and here is my list: 1. OpenInsider Every Form 4 filing in one clean searchable database. When a CEO buys $1M of their own stock on the open market this is where I see it. I actually go on every week and look at open market purchase activity especially when it’s a cluster and then research those companies further. openinsider.com 2. Whale Wisdom 13F institutional holdings tracker I use it to track the hedge funds I like so I know what Driehaus, Hood River or Renaissance are holding and what they just bought or sold. It’s how I found many amazing small caps early on like ONDS, BBOT, ATAI, etc. Updated every quarter after the 45-day filing deadline and I will use it to write up my post about “Going Behind Enemy Lines to Uncover What happened with Situational Awareness’s rise and fall” in about 10 days when they submit quarterly filings. whalewisdom.com 3. Unusual Whales Ok this one I have deep love for, it’s how I landed SO MANY successful options trades and I check it every day for UOAs. I subscribe to the premium version for full access. Options flow and congressional trading tracker. When unusually large options activity hits a ticker before a catalyst Unusual Whales catches it. Also tracks what your elected officials are trading, make of that what you will. 😏 unusualwhales.com 4. Quartr Beautiful App that delivers Earnings calls, investor presentations and transcripts in one place. I use this to listen to management on quarterly earnings calls, I can search through transcripts for specific keywords and it pulls press releases for companies you track faster than any other source. I used it to write my post on banks exposure to private credit. quartr.com 5 .Portfolio Visualizer This one is Amazing for backtesting to see if logic held up historically, correlation analysis, factor exposure. When I want to understand how two assets move relative to each other this is where I go. My posts on ETF correlation were built using this tool. portfoliovisualizer.com 6. Seeking Alpha I love this platform and I subscribe to the premium version for full access. The best Sector dashboards, earnings calendars, and analyst reviews. The Seeking Alpha screener is where the sector ETF performance data in my rotation posts comes from and it does it through a great user experience. seekingalpha.com 7. FinViz My morning ritual, covers futures, sector heatmaps, screeners, and technical data. If you’ve seen any of my Before the Open posts a lot of that data is sourced from Finviz. It’s simple, to the point and free. Finviz.com Now for my favorite sources of market updates and news: 1. Barron’s I think it’s on of the most thoughtful long-form financial journalism sources available to retail investors. barrons.com 2. Bloomberg Breaking market news and macro analysis. This one is the only news app where I have notifications on 😅 bloomberg.com 3. WSJ The paper of record for business and economics. Primary source journalism on Fed policy, corporate earnings and geopolitics. wsj.com 4. Motley Fool Good for accessible company-level analysis. I read it for perspective not a primary source. A tip on here is how I got interested to look into INTC again in March and went in at $49 which turned into a Multibagger by May. Fool.com 5. Substack It’s an amazing jungle of great writers and if you can find the ones that have real substance you’re in for some great insights. I’d recommend “The Dark Side of The Boom” exceptional financial analysis. The Holy Grail of Platforms for me though is SEC EDGAR. Nothing for me replaces reading through official filings, pulling data out of balance sheets, reading about business segments, company risks, and understanding how a company is progressing YoY/QoQ. The bulk of my posts as you guys might already know are sourced from data points I traced back to a primary source filings like 10-Q, 8-K, 13F. The tools help me find the signal and I usually confirm everything from filings. So, there you have it my full stack of tools in one posts, if you found this useful I invite you to follow my account for more. Have a great weekend!read more
I've gotten many messages over the past few months from people asking to look at their porfolio. Usually when I see a portfolio I see many individual stocks making up a large % of a porflio, my first response is always to buy low cost index funds. I dont want to come off harsh but I feel the definition of investor arrogance is believing you're smarter than the market. Believing you can consistently pick winning stocks while outperforming millions of other investors including professionals with teams of analysts and access to far more information than you. The data says otherwise. • Around 80–90% of actively managed U.S. equity funds underperform the S&P 500 over a 15-year period. • These funds are run by professionals with teams of analysts, company access, and institutional research, yet most still fail to outperform a simple index fund. One thing you'll notice on social media: people love posting their biggest stock winners. Far fewer people post the stocks they lost 50%, 80%, or even 100% on. There's a reason why mutual funds and actively managed funds have historically underperformed against index funds..because even well paid fund managers with their teams cant beat the market overtime. For the record, I still own some individual stocks. My portfolio is roughly 93% ETFs and 7% individual stocks. I enjoy researching companies, but I also recognize the odds are stacked against consistently beating the market. That's why the foundation of my portfolio is broad-market ETFs not stock picks.read more
Friendly reminder📌 $50/week is $2,600 a year Into $SPYI that's another $317/year in income Every year you do it, the number gets bigger Small money still counts💵read more
Three ways to value the same dividend stock. Three different answers. Yesterday Coca-Cola closed at $88.51. Here is what each method said the business was worth. Think of three appraisers walking through the same house. One prices it off the rent it collects. One off what the neighbors paid. One off what it would cost to build again. Nobody is lying. They are answering different questions. The Dividend Discount Model values the stock as the stream of dividends it pays you. Next year's dividend of $2.22, divided by an 8% required return minus 4.5% long-run dividend growth. Fair value: $63. Dividend Yield Theory assumes a quality payer drifts back to its own average yield. Coke's $2.12 dividend divided by its 10-year average yield of 3.05%. The stock yields 2.40% today, which is thin by its own history. Fair value: $70. Discounted Cash Flow ignores the dividend and values every dollar of cash the business generates. Start with the $12.2B of free cash flow Coke guides to for 2026, grow it 5% and discount it at 8%. Then subtract $29.7B of net debt. Fair value: $57. Three methods. A 22% spread from low to high. And the stock trades above all three. That spread is your margin of safety. Move the discount rate one point and every number here moves. You will never land on the exact right price for a business. You do not need to. You need to know where today's price sits against the range. Which method do you run first on a dividend stock? *** P.S. Want to know if your dividends are safe? Check all 1,000 dividend payers in one free sheet. Every streak, payout ratio, and debt load for Coca-Cola, Johnson & Johnson, Realty Income, and 997 more. Straight from SEC filings, updated monthly. → https://lnkd.in/eKyaWabiread more
Just not at this valuation 🫡 I’ve spent a lot of time trying to grasp the things that were discussed during $SPCX earnings call this week, and I have to say, I’m now looking at SpaceX and its AI segment from a completely different angle I think what SpaceX is trying to achieve could unlock a completely new category of "orbital utilities" that most investors are not seeing the full potential of right now. Stay tuned for my next long article this Sunday on @bdinvesting’s newsletter and here on Blossom 🚀
I’ve had a few newer blossom users follow me and like my posts here recently. I just want to give y’all a note of encouragement. No matter how old/young you are, NOW is the time. I remember in my early 20s how discouraged I was because my investments weren’t going anywhere and the information felt like too much. KEEP BUYING & researching. Use Blossom as a resource! We all started somewhere and have been discouraged plenty of times when markets turn red. Below, are a few stocks/ETFs to read up on. The time is now, don’t give up! 👊🏻 $QQQM$VTI$VOO$MSFT$NVDA$AVGO$MU$JNJ$AAPL$PLTR$GOOGL$META$UNH
After reaching the critical level of 10,000 followers (KTS #21 😉), we decided it was TIME to share the knowledge and our daily actions with incredible detail and insight on an adaptive platform that could handle stocks and options while sharing the specific tools that we use to monitor. A platform that would allow us more proximity with our community in a fun, interactive learning environment that can simplify the complex - all while allowing us to share even more content with more depth and latitude. Since launching this website in February, our most dedicated and invested followers have had the chance to enjoy: 📖 Weekly, relevant KTS posts - so 24 new KTS posts (without length restriction! 😂) 📝All of our trades & rationale (which have been transitioning in new areas and asset classes 😉) 🧙 Our views on this high period of volatility to be expected in the final stage of the meltup phase of the Real Estate/Banking crisis cycle ⚒️Access to our full tool suite (see our pinned post) These members have formed the first tranche of subscribers and have enjoyed incredible insights on the current state of the real estate/banking crisis cycle while observing the major accumulation in secular trend hidden gems 💎. These members have also been privy to how we are investing in a crosscurrent market where some equities are buys and some are sells. As we continue to transition the portfolio as inflection point peaks are set, we also share how to embrace the bear by demonstrating how to profit when markets head in the opposite direction. Ask yourself, why should the Wall Street Wolves be the only ones that earn outsized returns over a short period of TIME when markets fall? 😂 Our members have also been incredibly patient and resourceful with us while we were improving and fixing the usability of our website. And we are extremely grateful and thankful for their input. 🙏 Now we have a website loaded with content so it’s TIME for us to come back here, on Blossom - where this amazing journey started - as a genuine offer to further your financial acumen along the learning curve faster in this critical TIME. This was supposed to be the year of the most volatility, remember? 😉 So I intend to start posting content on Blossom again. 🤑🌊🏄 And I heard I won a Blossom award while away? So thank you to Max and for whomever is behind that! 🏆🙏 Our goal is, and will always be, to help you all learn and apply strategies to realize absolutely amazing, double-digit annualized returns. I want you to WIN 🏆 I will resume giving insights on our current view of the markets with our brand of proven unconventionalism (please tell me you finally discovered commodities by now? See our first post from March 9, 2024: “They are telling us so what are you waiting for?” post! Natural selection is alive and well! 😂🤣 Speaking of which, I see the conventionalists are still preaching their gospel in full force mode, right here on Blossom! 🤢🤣 As a gesture of the good TIMES of the past, I am sharing one of the KTS posts from the website - and in true Beskar fashion….. a true gem 💎 It’s also the very first KTS posted on the opening of our website. I find it particularly…..TIMEly! 😂 And it will give my conscience resolve. 😎👍 So here you go! https://www.beskarcapitalkts.com/featuredktspost The conventionalist script is everywhere - now more than ever as the institutions line up the retail bagholders. Regurgitated by the masses everywhere… investors are indoctrinated to think that the best investment strategy is to buy and hold a dilutive aggregate index fund to generate a meager average annualized real return of 9% - without any respect for the real estate/banking crisis cycle. We’ve proved it to ourselves countless TIMES over. With over 35+ years of investing experience, we know that an active investment approach can outperform with the right tool for the right market. Adapting is critical especially when markets are in a process of setting inflection points. 😉🏆😎 We have now reopened the membership window again: https://www.beskarcapitalkts.com/ I always give you my best! This is the way! 🌊🏄 Beskar read more
Congratulations to Jared on achieving the rising star award. We finally met in person today and he definitely made my experience super enjoyable! Thanks Jared you deserve it!!
TWO VERY DIFFERENT SETUPS Both companies just reported monster quarters. Both are spending historic money on AI. And yet my scanner reads them at opposite ends of the board. That gap is worth understanding, because it tells you how this market is thinking about 2026. Start with what they share. Microsoft grew revenue 18%, its cloud crossed $100 billion, backlog jumped 84%. Google grew 24%, its cloud grew a stunning 82%, and its cloud margins jumped sharply, from around 21% to nearly 36%. On the fundamentals, both are firing on every cylinder, and both are pouring nine figures into AI infrastructure. So why does my system flag one as a buy and the other as a skip? Relative strength. $MSFT is carrying one of the highest relative-strength readings on my list, in my optimal zone, price closing the week near its highs. The market is actively buying it. $GOOGL sits in a skip, its relative strength negative, and this week it closed pinned to the very bottom of its range while everything around it rallied. Same sector, same spending, opposite behavior. Here's what the numbers don't show but matter for 2026. Microsoft's spending is being rewarded because the market can see the return: Azure at 43% growth, margins near 45%. Google is spending just as aggressively but carrying an extra weight right now, a wave of senior AI talent leaving for rivals. The market forgives capex when it trusts the payoff. It gets nervous when the people building the future start walking out the door. So here are the two paths I'm watching into the rest of the year. For $MSFT : the risk isn't the business, it's the entry. It's strong, confirmed, and overbought all at once. The path that matters is whether it can hold its trend on a pullback. Great company, but chasing it up here is the mistake. I want the pause, not the peak. For $GOOGL : the business is arguably just as strong, but the stock has to prove the market wrong. The path to watch is relative strength turning back up. Until it does, cheap and strong on paper doesn't matter, because the tape is voting no. When a broken leader repairs, the chart tells you before the headlines do. The lesson underneath both: a great company and a great stock are not the same thing, and right now these two are the cleanest example on the board. One has the business and the tape. The other has the business and a question mark. Not investment advice. 🐝read more
🦋 The Golden Butterfly: Could This Portfolio Have Survived Every Major Market Crash Since 1929? Imagine investing $100,000 the day before one of the worst stock-market crashes in history — then watching it fall 30%, 50%, or during the Great Depression, almost 90%. Most portfolios assume one thing: over time, stocks go up. The Golden Butterfly Portfolio asks something very different — what if we built a portfolio designed to survive almost anything? Depression, inflation, deflation, banking crises, rate shocks, pandemics, even environments where stocks and bonds fall together. Despite the whimsical name, it's one of the more serious attempts ever made to engineer resilience into a portfolio. ⸻ 🦋 What Is the Golden Butterfly? Popularized by Portfolio Charts, the Golden Butterfly is a simplified evolution of Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio, built from five equal parts: U.S. large-cap stocks (20%) $VOO$SPY$VFV, U.S. small-cap value stocks (20%) $AVUV, long-term U.S. Treasuries (20%) $TLT, short-term U.S. Treasuries (20%) $SHY, and gold (20%) $GLD$IAU$ZGLD. In short: 40% stocks, 40% Treasuries, 20% gold. *At times up to 60% Treasuries with $PTLC The logic isn't prediction — it's response diversity. Each asset reacts differently to economic regimes: stocks benefit from growth, small-cap value adds a long-term equity premium, long Treasuries thrive in deflation and crises, short Treasuries provide stability, and gold responds to inflation and monetary stress. Instead of asking "what will happen next?", the portfolio assumes something unexpected will happen — and you already own the response. ⸻ **A note on the numbers below:** The Golden Butterfly is a modern construct, and reliable backtested data for it generally only goes back to the early 1970s (gold ownership was restricted for U.S. individuals until 1974, and usable small-cap value data doesn't extend to 1929). The 1929–1932 figures are a rough hypothetical reconstruction based on how each asset class is known to have behaved, not a verified historical backtest — treat them as illustrative, not precise. ⸻ 💀 1929–1932: The Great Depression Stocks collapsed nearly 90%, turning $100,000 into about $11,000. The Golden Butterfly didn't exist yet, but its structure gives us a reasonable sense of how it would have behaved: only 40% of the portfolio is exposed to equities, so the stock sleeve would have fallen from $40,000 to roughly $4,400, while the remaining 60% — bonds and gold-like exposure — wouldn't have collapsed anywhere near as hard. Putting it together, the portfolio would likely have seen a total drawdown in the range of **$100,000 → roughly $70,000–$80,000** (about 20%–30%), versus stocks' 89% collapse. The key difference is structural: no single asset class defines survival. ⸻ 🔥 1973–1974: Inflation Shock Stocks fell roughly 45%, turning $100,000 into about $55,000. In the Golden Butterfly, the 40% equity sleeve would have fallen to about $22,000, long Treasuries would have struggled against inflation, short Treasuries would have held their value, and gold — newly legal to own and entering one of its strongest runs — would have risen sharply enough to offset much of the damage. Net result: **$100,000 → about $80,000–$90,000**, a 10%–20% drawdown. Rather than being destroyed by inflation, the portfolio absorbed it through gold. ⸻ 💻 2000–2002: Dot-Com Collapse Stocks fell roughly 48%, turning $100,000 into about $52,000. The equity sleeve would have dropped to about $20,800, but falling rates lifted long Treasuries, short Treasuries stayed steady, and gold added further diversification. Estimated outcome: **$100,000 → roughly $75,000–$85,000**, a 15%–25% drawdown — losing about a fifth to a quarter of value instead of nearly half. ⸻ 🏦 2008–2009: Global Financial Crisis This is the most important case. Stocks fell 55%–57%, turning $100,000 into about $43,000–$45,000. Inside the Golden Butterfly, the equity sleeve took a real hit, but long Treasuries surged, gold acted as a crisis hedge, and short Treasuries held steady — bringing the estimated drawdown to just 15%–20%, or **$100,000 → roughly $80,000–$85,000**. The contrast is stark: stocks alone landed near $45,000, versus roughly $82,000 for the Golden Butterfly. That's the difference between forced panic and controlled rebalancing. After the crash, bonds were high and stocks were low, which mechanically pushed the portfolio toward selling strength and buying weakness — exactly the behavior most investors struggle to do on their own. ⸻ 🦠 2020: COVID Crash Stocks fell about 34%, turning $100,000 into about $66,000. The equity portion would have dropped sharply, but Treasuries rallied and gold held or rose slightly, bringing the estimated drawdown to 12%–18%, or **$100,000 → roughly $82,000–$88,000**. Even in a crash this fast, diversification reduced both the speed and the depth of the damage. ⸻ ⚠️ 2022: Stocks and Bonds Fall Together This is one of the hardest environments for any diversified portfolio: stocks fell about 25%, but bonds dropped too as rates rose sharply. In the Golden Butterfly, stocks fell, long Treasuries fell, gold only partially offset the damage, and short Treasuries provided some stability — landing the estimated drawdown at 18%–20%, or **$100,000 → roughly $80,000–$82,000**. Even when diversification partially fails, no single asset dominates the destruction. ⸻ 📊 The Unified Pattern Across All Crashes The pattern across every era is consistent: stocks alone can fall anywhere from 40% to 90% depending on the crisis, while the Golden Butterfly typically falls in the 15%–30% range regardless of what kind of crisis it is. A $100,000 stock portfolio can become anywhere from $10,000 to $60,000 depending on the crash; a $100,000 Golden Butterfly typically becomes $70,000–$85,000. Different crises, same outcome — losses get distributed instead of concentrated in one place. ⸻ 🌦️ Enter Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio The All Weather ($ALLW) strategy is built on a similar idea: economic regimes rotate, so portfolios should be balanced across them. Compared to the Golden Butterfly, All Weather is more macro-balanced while the Golden Butterfly is simpler and more equity-heavy — but both aim at the same goal: surviving multiple economic environments rather than betting on one. ⸻ 🥊 The Key Structural Difference Two things separate them. First, growth exposure: All Weather typically holds less equity than the Golden Butterfly, making it the more conservative of the two. Second, inflation protection: All Weather spreads that job across both gold and commodities, while the Golden Butterfly concentrates it in gold alone. ⸻ 🚦 Where PTLC Fits In PTLC $PTLC introduces a different mechanism, $VOO that automatically rotates 50%-100% into treasuries after 5 day draw down, it has averaged 10%+ over the last 5 years, giving away some upside in exchange for a built in circuit breaker (see one of my previous posts)— trend-based risk control. Instead of always holding equities, it can reduce exposure during downtrends, which raises an obvious question: can that improve one part of the Butterfly? ⸻ 🦋 Golden Butterfly 2.0 Swap large-cap equities for PTLC (trend-based large caps), and the portfolio becomes: PTLC, small-cap value, long Treasuries, short Treasuries, and gold. This changes behavior, not philosophy — but it comes with trade-offs. It tends to do better in prolonged bear markets and worse in fast reversals, and can lag during strong bull markets. ⸻ 🧠 The Real Genius of the Golden Butterfly The portfolio isn't trying to predict anything — it assumes multiple types of failure will occur over time, and spreads the job of handling them accordingly. Stocks handle growth, bonds handle deflation, gold handles monetary stress, small-cap value adds equity diversification, short Treasuries provide liquidity, and PTLC (optionally) adds trend defense. ⸻ 🏆 Is It Better Than the S&P 500? Wrong question. The S&P 500 wins in long bull markets. The Golden Butterfly wins in survivability and behavioral stability — because the real constraint most investors face isn't return, it's whether they can stay invested after a crash. ⸻ 👴 Why This Matters Most in Retirement A 50% drawdown isn't just a paper loss — it's a withdrawal crisis. A $1,000,000 portfolio falling to $450,000 forces withdrawals from an already-damaged base, which is exactly what sequence-of-returns risk means in practice. The Golden Butterfly softens this by ensuring something is always available to sell without locking in the worst possible losses. ⸻ 🦋 Final Thought Most investors ask, "What will make me the most money?" The Golden Butterfly asks a different question: "What structure survives the widest range of disasters?" Since 1929, markets have survived depressions, inflation shocks, bubbles, crises, pandemics, and rate shocks — and through all of it, no single asset class survives everything. So the portfolio doesn't try to find the winner. It just makes sure no single loser can destroy you. It doesn't try to win every crisis. It just tries to keep flying. *The pre-1970s figures in this piece are illustrative reconstructions, not verified historical backtests, and all dollar figures are estimates rather than precise historical data. This is not investment advice.* read more
I see many beginners posting that they’re new to investing and don’t know where to start. 🤔 As someone who was in a similar situation just a few months ago and learned, here are the 4 ETF types (& ETFs) that are popular among long term investors 😃 : 1) S&P 500: US: $VOO / $SPY / $SPLG Canadian: $VFV / $ZSP / $TPU 2) GROWTH / TECH: US: $QQQ / $VUG / $VGT / $SCHG Canadian: $QQC / $HXQ / $TEC / $ZUQ 3) DIVIDENDS: US: $SCHD / $VYM / $DGRO Canadian: $VDY / $XEI 4) ALL IN ONE / BASKET / Global Exposure: US: $VT / $AVGE Canadian: $ZEQT / $XEQT / $TGRO / $VEQT / $ZGQ I noticed many people following this type of a basic / uncomplicated portfolio and are doing really well for themselves 🔥 For % allocation, you can divide evenly among the ETF categories or allocate a higher % based on your preferences. Just DCA regularly and you should be good. 😎 Some people even just put it all into an all in one etf like $XEQT. This is also a good approach - it is much simpler and it works. Ultimately, it comes to whatever you prefer 🙂 Oh and yea, there are overlaps, but I don’t think there is anything wrong in that though - it would just count as doubling down on good things. 💯 I’m sharing with you all what helped me, but don’t forget to do your own research too! 🙏🏼 read more
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Friday closed out a strong week. S&P 500 hit a record close at 7,757.64 (+0.62%), Nasdaq jumped 1.3% to 26,690.62, Dow added 0.28%.  All on a weak jobs report; markets read it as the Fed staying on hold, and traders took a September hike off the table entirely.  S&P is up 3.6% and Nasdaq up 5.2% over the past two weeks, chips leading the bounce-back. Markets closed for the weekend, but curious how everyone’s positioned heading into next week. Rate-hold trade feels crowded already.
For years, @mr.financial was a passionate dividend growth investor, spending countless hours researching companies, analyzing financial statements, and building a portfolio of individual stocks. But after years of experience—and several different seasons of life—he made a decision that surprised many investors: he sold every individual stock and embraced broad-market index ETFs. In this video, he shares the lessons that completely changed his investing philosophy. From understanding how your risk tolerance evolves over time, to realizing the hidden cost of constantly watching the markets, he explains why simplicity ultimately won. He also reflects on the importance of mastering investing fundamentals before chasing the latest trends, why most investors overestimate their ability to outperform the market, and why building wealth should ultimately create more freedom to spend time with the people who matter most. On a more peesonal note, Mr. Financial is one of those YouTubers and content creators whom I have so much respect for and have learnt from. I highly recommend giving him a follow on YouTube and Blossom. What portioj of your portfolio is in ETFs versus stocks? 🙂 For me 100% is in ETFs. Video link below: https://youtu.be/-ZeFoxo9UlIread more
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