That rally hype is over. We are now in the downturn of memory cycle, followed by semi. I am finally selling all my $MU shares today. Its been great, time to move on.
$QQQ pushing toward 700 as money rotates back into chip and memory stocks. If 700 breaks and holds, 707–710 could be the next area to watch. $MU remains on watch. A strong reaction following $SNDK earnings on Wednesday could put 900 back in play. $SPXL continues to look constructive. If momentum stays intact, a move toward new all-time highs around 7620 is on the radar. ⚠️ Let price confirm the breakout before chasing. Manage risk and stay patient. Good luck, everyone! 🫡 read more
$MU has pulled back roughly 13% from where I trimmed, and this is exactly why I like taking some off into strength. It gives you flexibility instead of forcing decisions. Right now I'm watching two support areas before thinking about adding again. Semis are still digesting a strong run, while today's leadership has shifted toward software and some of the larger-cap growth names. Could Micron bounce sooner? Sure. But I'd rather miss the first few percent than buy into a weak trend. Patience is a position too. Ready for the bell? What sector looks strongest? Have a great session. read more
The long-term Amazon story keeps getting more interesting. UBS sees the potential for $AMZN to reach around $1.7T in revenue and $500B in net income by 2030 as AWS, AI infrastructure, advertising, and retail efficiency continue scaling. A $10T valuation would require a lot of execution, so I'm not treating that as a guaranteed outcome. But the bigger picture is clear: Amazon is no longer just an e-commerce company. It's becoming a major AI and cloud infrastructure player. The market may continue to reprice companies that can turn AI spending into real earnings growth. Market isn't done yet. Any names you're trimming? Protect your gains. read more
$ONDS has regained the 0.5 Fibonacci level and reclaimed the $8 area, showing improving momentum after the recent consolidation. The next major technical hurdle to watch is the 200 EMA. A successful breakout above this level could confirm a stronger trend reversal and open the path for the next phase of the move. With earnings scheduled for August 13th before market open, the upcoming report could become an important catalyst. If the bullish structure continues to develop, the long-term Wave 3 target around $20 remains in focus.
Everyone is debating whether $PLTR is expensive. I think the more interesting question is whether cash flow keeps surprising to the upside. Alex Karp has talked about the potential for $15B-$18B in annual free cash flow over the next few years. If Palantir gets anywhere close, today's valuation will probably be judged very differently than it is now. The stock has had a huge run, so I wouldn't chase extended moves. But as long as commercial growth and margins keep improving, the long-term thesis is still intact in my view. I'm watching the business execution more than the daily candles. Happy trading day! Buying strength or waiting for a pullback? Have a great session. read more
I've been watching $TSLA, and the biggest question right now is simple: where does the next leg of growth come from? Tesla has built an incredible brand and ecosystem, but revenue growth has slowed significantly compared with the earlier years. The market is still pricing in future opportunities like Robotaxi and Optimus, but those stories need real execution before they can change the numbers. For now, I think the stock remains stuck between future potential and current fundamentals. If revenue growth starts accelerating again, the conversation changes quickly. Until then, capital may have better opportunities elsewhere. I'm not ignoring Tesla's vision, just waiting for the data to catch up. Still watching? Any names you're trimming? Risk management comes first. read more
$ASTS continues to hold strong support around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the anchored VWAP from the 2024 lows near the $52 area. As expected, the stock has shifted into a sideways consolidation phase, which could indicate accumulation before the next major move. This week’s first $SPCX share unlock could become an important catalyst. Some investors positioned long SpaceX exposure while shorting ASTS may start adjusting those positions. With earnings next week, a potential launch event tomorrow, and the upcoming business update call on Monday, multiple catalysts are lining up. Watching $ASTS closely. August could become a major month for momentum.
I've been watching the big three closely, and so far the trend is still holding. $SPY continues to grind higher after breaking out, staying above the key $690 area. The bigger trend remains strong, but after such a move, I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation. $QQQ is still leading thanks to AI and mega-cap strength. The breakout is intact, but every push higher needs fresh buyers to keep momentum alive. $IWM is the one I'm watching for rotation. Small caps have lagged, but the structure is improving if buyers continue to defend key support. The market has been rewarding patience, but chasing extended moves can get expensive. I'm staying focused on levels and waiting for better setups. Happy trading day! Think volatility stays high? read more
Wedbush stuck with its Outperform rating and a $75 price target on $IONQ, so the long-term story hasn't really changed. The latest updates seem more about refining estimates after the SkyWater transaction than changing the overall outlook. That said, analyst targets don't move stocks by themselves. Price action still matters, especially after the kind of swings quantum names have seen lately. I'm keeping IONQ on my watchlist, but I'd rather buy confirmation than chase a green open. In this tape, patience usually pays better than FOMO. Let's get started. Which stocks will you avoid today? See you after the market closes. read more
The S&P 500 is starting August with strong momentum, and the market is getting close to an important technical confirmation. After a 1.5% up day, $SPX pushed near its all-time high around 7,621, with today's high reaching 7,610. A clean break above that level would confirm the July 29 low as an 80 trading day cycle low. The trend is still favoring the bulls, but this is where discipline matters. New highs can attract more buyers, but they can also bring some profit-taking. I'm watching how price reacts around these levels instead of chasing every move. Strong markets can stay strong, but risk management still comes first. Who's still trading? What's staying on your watchlist tomorrow? Stay disciplined. read more
$GOOGL has been one of the cleaner setups I've been watching. The bounce from the 200-day moving average has now pushed the stock roughly $60 higher, showing why key technical levels still matter. When quality companies pull back into major support, sometimes the best opportunities come from staying patient instead of chasing momentum. The move has been strong, but I'm not assuming the easy part continues forever. Now the focus shifts to execution AI growth, cloud momentum, and whether Google can keep turning investment into earnings. Good trades aren't just about finding winners. They're about managing the position when you're right. What's your biggest winner today? Protect your gains. read more
I've been watching $ORCL closely after the recent selloff, and the setup is starting to get interesting. The sub-$120 area brought buyers back in, but the real question now is whether Oracle can turn its AI investments into actual growth. OCI expansion, cloud demand, and its large backlog are the pieces investors are watching. The valuation looks more reasonable after the pullback, but the market won't reward the story forever execution has to show up in revenue and cash flow. I'm not trying to call the exact bottom. I'm watching how the stock builds from here and whether the fundamentals keep improving. Time to stay focused. Think tomorrow follows through? Risk management comes first. read more
I've been keeping an eye on $SOFI because the story is starting to shift from growth expectations to actual earnings power. Anthony Noto expects SoFi to generate well over $1 in EPS by 2028, which implies a strong earnings growth path from current levels. The opportunity is interesting, but the market will want to see execution, not just projections. For me, the key areas to watch are deposit growth, loan quality, member expansion, and whether margins continue moving higher. The stock has momentum, but I don't want to ignore valuation after a big move. Let the business prove the thesis. Morning! What's at the top of your watchlist today? Looking forward to your thoughts. read more
Sharing for no reason whatsoever... Five popular, heavily owned names, some of which I've even seen called "must own", that I have absolutely zero interest in owning. Nothing against those who do, but I don't want them. $META - Amazingly profitable today, but I don't think the company's story ends well. $PLTR - If I can't trust the company, I don't want to own the stock. $SPCX / $TSLA - Elon has full say over corporate governance & I don't trust his judgement. Covered-Call ETFs - Fees are too high & I don't like having my gains capped.
$NBIS is showing strong recovery momentum today, trading sharply higher and attempting to break above the recent downtrend resistance. The stock is now testing a key technical inflection point. If this breakout confirms, the next move could bring renewed momentum as the next wave structure develops. A successful trend reversal could open the door for a powerful Wave 5 advance, with investors watching closely for continued strength. $NBIS remains one of the AI infrastructure names to watch as the market focuses on long-term growth opportunities.
Breakout confirmed. Successful retest. Momentum followed. The stock moved sharply higher with a +16% gain, showing strong follow-through after clearing resistance. This is exactly the type of technical structure traders look for: a clean breakout, confirmation, and continuation. Watching the next resistance levels closely, with a potential target around $36 if the momentum continues. Strong setups create opportunities when the market gives the signal.read more
I believe $HIMS is building a strong technical setup heading into next week’s earnings. The stock appears to be progressing through a Wave 3 structure after completing a potential Sub Wave 2 pullback. The recent retracement into the 0.50-0.618 Fibonacci zone was a textbook reset, and momentum could start shifting back to the upside from here. A strong earnings report could become the catalyst $HIMS needs to regain confidence from investors. If fundamentals continue improving, this could mark a key turning point with a bigger growth runway into the end of 2026 and beyond. Watching $HIMS closely while it remains below the 50-week moving average.
We're seeing a clear rotation into $AMZN$MSFT$GOOGL$META this morning. AMZN is near the all time high at 278, if it gets through.. we can see 300+ this summer. $MSFT setting up for 490, 500 as well. Chip and memory stocks taking another gap down today as well. $MU touched 930+ on Friday, now its at 788 before $SNDK earnings on Wednesday. Let's see if MU can pop back through 800 and run to 840+ again this week. $SPX to 7620 in play if it holds the gap above 7500. Calls can work above 7550 this week. $QQQ up 1.8 premarket, Let's see if it can push to 700+. We need to see chip and memory stocks rally higher to push the Nasdaq back up. Good luck today everyone!! 🫡
🚨 The S&P 500's 100 year rhythm says this bull market still has years left, but one trader breaking down the $SPX chart says this time is different. For a century the pattern held: roughly 25 years of expansion, then 9 to 12 years of decline. Over and over. Every past expansion rode a technology that took decades to fully price in. Railroads. Electricity. The internet. AI allegedly didn't get that runway. It got repriced in about two years, compressing a multi-decade move into a blink. And now the warning signs are stacking up: → Valuations near historical extremes → Smart money quietly cutting exposure → Distribution signals showing up everywhere → Insiders selling → Buffett sitting on record cash → Burry comparing the setup to 1999 The 25 year cycle only holds if the catalyst keeps driving growth for decades. If the market already priced in those decades in two, there's nothing left to grow into. Just a lot of air under the price. The next major move won't wait for everyone to agree. It never does. Not financial advice. Do your own research. #followmeread more
AI is not only moving into data centers. It is moving into aircraft, radar, satellites, missile defense, electronic warfare, autonomous platforms, and battlefield systems. Mercury Systems, Inc. ($MRCY) sits directly in that infrastructure layer. This is not a traditional defense-prime thesis. It is a secure computing at the tactical edge thesis. Q3 FY2026 Snapshot • Revenue: $235.8M • Organic Growth: ~11.5% YoY • Bookings: $348.3M, up ~74% • Book-to-Bill: 1.48x • Backlog: ~$1.58B, up ~18% YoY • Adjusted EBITDA: $36.1M, up 46% • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 15.3% • Q3 Free Cash Flow: -$1.8M • Cash: $331.8M • Debt: $591.5M The strongest signal is not just revenue growth. It is the combination of record bookings, rising backlog, and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins. A 1.48x book-to-bill means Mercury booked substantially more business than it recognized as revenue during the quarter. That strengthens future revenue visibility. The Margin Story Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 11.7% to 15.3%. That is meaningful operating leverage. But the turnaround is not complete. GAAP profitability remains weaker, free cash flow was negative in Q3, and working capital remains heavy. Mercury still needs to prove that higher adjusted earnings can consistently convert into cash. 5 To 10-Year Thesis Mercury could benefit from: • Missile-defense modernization • Electronic warfare • Space-based sensing • Secure communications • Radar modernization • Autonomous defense systems • Edge AI • Trusted domestic electronics Management ultimately targets adjusted EBITDA margins in the low-to-mid 20% range and free-cash-flow conversion around 50%. If Mercury can approach those targets while maintaining organic growth, the earnings profile could look materially stronger. The Risk The market is no longer valuing $MRCY like a distressed turnaround. Investors are increasingly paying for successful execution. That raises the bar. Margins need to keep expanding. Backlog needs to convert. Free cash flow needs to improve. Debt needs to decline. My View The turnaround appears credible. The defense tailwinds are strong. The secure edge-computing opportunity is real. But the next phase is about proving that demand can become durable shareholder economics. Signal: Bookings and backlog are accelerating. System: Secure mission computing at the tactical edge. Risk: Valuation, cash conversion, debt, and execution. Action: Watch book-to-bill, EBITDA margins, free cash flow, inventory, and net debt. Backlog beats hype. Cash conversion proves the turnaround. Stay Solvent. Stay Secure. EDUCATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY ONLY! NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY, SELL, OR HOLD! #MRCY #DefenseTech #EdgeAI #Aerospace #MacroMonday #TheFinancialLedger #WealthCoachLathanread more
