National Bank's September Sector Report: what actually matters for Canadian portfolios right now Went through National Bank Financial's September Vision sector report in full this week, and the read-through is more useful for what it contradicts about consensus positioning than for what it confirms. A few things stood out that I think are under appreciated by Canadian retail investors like me right now. Sector rotation: NBF maintains its sector allocation unchanged within Canadian equities, with above-benchmark exposure to energy, industrials, and materials. Both sectors are well positioned to benefit from Ottawa’s renewed focus on resource development and reindustrialization. Enbridge is still a good investment long term according to what I know but isn't a top pick for NB - and the reason why matters more than the rating itself. ENB carries a Sector Perform from NBF's pipelines desk, not Outperform, with a 12-month target of $81.00. Against Friday's close of $68.14, that's ~19% upside, which sounds fine in isolation until you see it against the five names NBF actually selected this month: $ALA AltaGas, $CPX Capital Power, $GEI Gibson Energy, $RGSI Rockpoint Gas Storage, and $TRP TC Energy. NBF screens this list on Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) yield plus forward-looking projection (2025–29 AFFO/share growth), balance sheet health and catalyst density. Enbridge's problem isn't the business, it's the math. At ~12x distributable cash flow and mid-single-digit distribution growth, it's priced like the "safe" name because it is one, but that safety is exactly what caps the return relative to smaller, faster-growing midstream peers with real catalysts. None of this breaks the ENB thesis as a core income holding it just means "top pick" and "core hold" are different questions. Tourmaline still has the cleanest energy setup on the list. OP rating, $75.00 target, ~23% upside from Friday's $60.85 close, in a group where NBF is broadly constructive on WTI staying "higher for longer" given continued Strait of Hormuz disruption risk. Worth noting $TOU carries zero exposure on either side of the Canada–US tariff lists that landed in August/September, energy was carved out by both governments. Gold miners: Three Outperform ratings, three target cuts, one name already trading above its new target. $ABX Barrick, $AEM Agnico Eagle, and $K Kinross all kept their OP ratings this month but all three saw price targets cut - Barrick to $70.00, Agnico to $275.00, Kinross to $47.50. Agnico is the interesting case: it closed Friday at $278.97, already above its own freshly-lowered target. That's not NBF turning bearish on gold, it's a valuation model catching up to a stock that ran hotter than the NAV math supports, and it's not isolated to National Bank; BofA, Barclays, RBC, and Raymond James have all trimmed their targets in the same window while staying constructive on gold. The lesson: a target cut alongside a maintained BUY is a valuation reset, not a thesis reversal. A few names cleared screening this month that deserve a caveat before treating them as live ideas. 1. $GFL Environmental is NBF's explicit top idea in Industrial Products - OP, $81.00 target, and the risk-reward is backed by something real: GFL has been fielding take-private approaches since early July, with the CEO confirming offers "materially higher" than market value. 2. $QBR-B Quebecor ($74.00 target, ~15% upside) is currently a live GTC order in my own book, not an open idea. 3. $REI-UN RioCan REIT screens well on paper but failed technical validation this month, a reminder that a strong fundamental score and a tradeable entry are two separate tests. 4. $AD-UN Alaris, $EXE Extendicare, $DBM Doman Building Materials, and $HPS-A Hammond Power round out names worth a closer look, none of them positions yet. Net takeaway for Canadian investors: this report is a good corrective against treating "widely held" and "top pick" as synonyms. The names getting NBF's actual conviction this month skew toward smaller-cap growth-and-catalyst stories, not the large, liquid stocks and the gold miner target cuts are a useful signal that the easy money in that trade already happened. For informational purposes. Please verify all figures against current data before acting; targets and ratings shown are National Bank Financial's as of the September 2026 Vision report and are subject to change.
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