I ask my boy Claudio the same thing and he also said the same thing but also lined it up with a macro and micro Elliot wave as well.
Here is what it said.
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The Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle and Elliott Wave Theory are two lenses describing the same underlying phenomenon: every ~4 years, the halving cuts new BTC supply by 50%, creating a demand/supply imbalance that manifests as a 5-wave Elliott impulse — Wave 1 (disbelief rally post-halving), Wave 2 (sharp correction, "was that it?"), Wave 3 (the longest and most powerful leg driven by retail and institutional FOMO), Wave 4 (choppy exhausting consolidation), and Wave 5 (final euphoria and ATH) — followed by an ABC correction (Wave A crash, Wave B dead-cat bounce, Wave C capitulation bottom) that resets the cycle before the next halving fires it again; zooming out, BTC's entire history from 2009 maps as a fractal supercycle where each 4-year halving cycle is itself one nested wave degree inside a larger structure, meaning the halving doesn't cause the wave — it's the fundamental clockwork that gives the wave its predictable timing, and the crowd psychology of greed and fear is what gives it its shape, which is why your core framework of buying Wave 2/Wave 4/Wave C and selling Wave 3/Wave 5 is so powerful: you're trading with the clock, the math, and human nature all aligned in the same direction.
