I stumbled across a theory in a facebook post and ran it through grok. Pasted below is the answer. I did not fact check it. But interesting results nonetheless. Simple text version of the 1064/364-day Bitcoin cycle Starting from the major low in January 2015: • From the January 14, 2015 low to the December 17, 2017 high: 1,068 days (theory target: 1,064 days) • From the December 17, 2017 high to the December 15, 2018 low: 363 days (theory target: 364 days) • From the December 15, 2018 low to the November 10, 2021 high: 1,061 days (theory target: 1,064 days) • From the November 10, 2021 high to the November 21, 2022 low: 376 days (theory target: 364 days) • From the November 21, 2022 low to the October 6, 2025 high: 1,050 days (theory target: 1,064 days) Accuracy so far The bull phases (low to high) have been extremely close: 1,068 → 1,061 → 1,050 days. The bear phases (high to low) have also stayed tight: 363 and 376 days. Overall, the rhythm has held within roughly two weeks of the 1,064 / 364 targets across the mature cycles. Current projection October 6, 2025 high + 364 days points to around October 5, 2026 as the central estimate for the next major low. As of early August 2026 we are about 300 days into that expected bear phase. $MSTE$IBIT$BTC
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13 Comments
Kar Yung Tom@karyungtom · 15d
It's one of those things that's just interesting to see play out. For sure there's been this pattern but is it going to be less pronounced as people who believe in this pattern start front-running it.
Richard Verhaeghe@ravonar · 15dEdited
Yes that’s what Diddy on Bitcoin family says but he also says DCA like no tomorrow, my father in law is a retired university math professor, can’t use a computer, he follows the power law, with a calculator he came to Oct 5 as well but he owns zero bitcoin, no computer, no smartphone but it fascinates him, the 4.5 year cycle is alive & well.
Michael Noël@therev · 15d
Maker @mkrdvdnd · 15d
I ask my boy Claudio the same thing and he also said the same thing but also lined it up with a macro and micro Elliot wave as well. Here is what it said. <><><><> The Bitcoin 4-year halving cycle and Elliott Wave Theory are two lenses describing the same underlying phenomenon: every ~4 years, the halving cuts new BTC supply by 50%, creating a demand/supply imbalance that manifests as a 5-wave Elliott impulse — Wave 1 (disbelief rally post-halving), Wave 2 (sharp correction, "was that it?"), Wave 3 (the longest and most powerful leg driven by retail and institutional FOMO), Wave 4 (choppy exhausting consolidation), and Wave 5 (final euphoria and ATH) — followed by an ABC correction (Wave A crash, Wave B dead-cat bounce, Wave C capitulation bottom) that resets the cycle before the next halving fires it again; zooming out, BTC's entire history from 2009 maps as a fractal supercycle where each 4-year halving cycle is itself one nested wave degree inside a larger structure, meaning the halving doesn't cause the wave — it's the fundamental clockwork that gives the wave its predictable timing, and the crowd psychology of greed and fear is what gives it its shape, which is why your core framework of buying Wave 2/Wave 4/Wave C and selling Wave 3/Wave 5 is so powerful: you're trading with the clock, the math, and human nature all aligned in the same direction.
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