AAOI has pulled back hard, but I’m still very interested in the setup. The biggest part of the thesis for me is 2027. Current estimates are calling for 170%+ revenue growth in 2027, which is absolutely insane if AAOI can actually pull through Management expects data-center transceiver revenue to reach roughly $471M PER MONTH by mid-2027, with ~$217M/month coming from 800G and ~$164M/month from 1.6T. That’s a massive ramp from where the company is today. The biggest risk for me is whether AAOI can actually deliver on the 2027 expectations. If the growth doesn’t come through as expected, the stock could see a pretty big pullback. But if they hit those numbers, I think the upside could be huge. But if they do come through, I think the risk/reward setup is worth watching My average is $107 and if we break below $100-80$I’ll be looking to add more. My rough targets- 🔴 Bear: $80–90 🟡 Base: $140–160 🟢 Bull: $175–190-250$ AAOI is around a $10.5B market cap right now so the question is if the future earnings power justifies the valuation I’m not saying this is a guaranteed winner It’s a high risk alpha position where the 2027 expectations are doing a lot of the heavy lifting If 2027 delivers → massive upside potential. If 2027 disappoints → it can drop just as hard
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Will Wright@willwright19 · 1h
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