Welcome to August. July is finally over. 😮💨 🚨 Key Highlights July Close ⚠️ Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday that the US agreed to pause attacks on Iran: “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.” The deal would include the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat. ❌ Energy stocks already pricing in Iran pause with Chevron -1.28%, ExxonMobil -1.5%, ConocoPhillips -3.2% all in pre-market. The Iran move is being priced in before US markets open. ⚠️ July 31 was a good Friday close to end a brutal month, S&P 500 +0.7%, Nasdaq +1%, Dow +0.5% on the day. But July as a whole was ugly. Nasdaq fell nearly -7% for the month. S&P 500 barely flat at -0.1%. Only the Dow squeaked out a monthly gain at +0.3%. Friday was a good day. July was not a good month. Futures: • S&P 500: +0.41% • Nasdaq 100: +0.63% • Dow: +0.33% • Russell 2000: +0.49% Fear & Greed: • VIX: -0.58% - fear easing Macro: • Oil WTI: -4.77% 🔴 Impact of Iran pause • Oil Brent: -4.62% 🔴 • Gold: +0.60% • Bitcoin: +0.78% • 10-Year Treasury: +0.35%, yields ticking slightly higher Sectors — July 31 Close: • XLK Technology: -0.22%, RSI 46 ⚠️ Apple drag offset by Amazon surge • XLV Healthcare: -0.59%, RSI 55 ⚠️ • XLE Energy: +1.00%, RSI 63 🟢 expect reversal at open with oil -4.77% • XLF Financials: -0.11%, RSI 62 🟢 • XLP Consumer Staples: -0.49% , RSI 51 ⚠️ • XLB Materials: -2.34%, RSI 45 ⚠️ Today’s Catalysts: ✴️ Oil -4.77% - Iran pause pulling XLE lower at open ✴️ Berkshire Hathaway earnings 📅 US July Jobs Report - biggest macro data point of the week 📅 AMD Tuesday - next semiconductor thesis test This Week’s Key Earnings: $AMD$UBER$BRK-B Tomorrow’s Expectations: Oil down nearly 5% before the open is the Iran pause doing the work, but we’ve seen this movie before. XLE potential for reversal and eyes on Oil reserves hitting 40 year low. The broader market picture is more positive. Equities green. VIX declining. The AI earnings wave seems to have confirmed the thesis three nights in a row. July was the month of indiscriminate selling and August opens so far with selective optimism. Source: Finviz live futures Not financial advice
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5 Comments
Michelle Womack@spartangreen · 19h
I had to delete my comment… I hate jinxing things!
Kyle T@kyletfreedom58 · 17h
Jonny Blaze@jonnyblaze · 18h
Hopefully $ET will drop some as well because I need to buy some!
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