Before the Open — July 31, 2026 | Beginner Investors

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Before the Open — July 31, 2026

Today was one for the history books, and if you only read one of my “before the open” newsletters this week… make it this one 🚀

Today’s Key Highlights:

✅ The market staged a massive rebound, Semiconductor gauge +8% in a single session. Nasdaq 100 ended a six-day losing streak up +3.36%. S&P 500 +1.7%. Dow +613 points. DRAM, SKHY, MU, AMD, NBIS, etc. all bouncing hard off oversold levels to double digit single day increases. The forced selling that crushed the sector for six weeks seems to have exhausted at least for now.

✅ XLK surged +5.50% - The Microsoft and semi rebound carried the entire tech sector. RSI recovered from 34 to 46.71 in a single session and that’s exactly the bounce we mentioned and hoped for in yesterday’s brief.

❌ The biggest casualty of the AI selloff was Situational Awareness LP, the AI hedge fund founded by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, 25, running 4x leverage on AI and semiconductor positions and force sold its entire $20B+ public equities portfolio to Citadel in a single block before Thursday’s open. Three prime brokers: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and BoA triggered margin calls after AI infrastructure positions fell 35-47% in July. The fund was up 439% net through June 30 and one month of forced selling wiped it out. (This was a massive overhang on the market that just lifted cleanly without the mess of aggressive selling)

✅ $MSFT made history with +15.51% adding $492B in market value which is the largest single day market cap gain by any company in stock market history. Eclipsed NVIDIA’s $440B record from April 2025. Azure +43%, annual revenue crossed $100B for the first time.

✅ $AMZN delivered with AWS growing 37% YoY to $42.2B — fastest growth in 18 quarters. Total revenue crossed $200B for the first time ever in a single quarter. Operating income +43%. Stock +7% after hours. Andy Jassy: “AWS is booming.”

⚠️ $AAPL mixed — Revenue and EPS beat. iPhone +22%. But Services missed at $30.74B vs $31.22B expected. Stock -4% after hours on the services miss.

Futures:
• S&P 500: +0.04%
• Nasdaq 100: +0.4%
• Dow: +0.1%
• Russell 2000: +0.1%

Fear & Greed:
• VIX: +0.15% ⚠️ - fear retreated hard earlier in the day and then picked up again after-market

Macro:
• Oil WTI: +0.63% - pulling back slightly
• Oil Brent: -1.88% - easing
• Gold: +0.2%
• Bitcoin: +0.17%
• 10-Year Treasury: -0.2% - yields easing slightly

Sectors July 30 Close:
• XLK Technology: +5.50% , RSI 47 🟢 bounced hard
• XLV Healthcare: -1.64%, RSI 57 ⚠️ rotation reversing
• XLE Energy: +0.53%, RSI 61 🟢
• XLF Financials: +0.56%, RSI 63 🟢
• XLP Con. Staples: -2.16%, RSI 53 ⚠️ defensive money rotating back to tech
• XLB Materials: -0.19%, RSI 54 ⚠️

Tomorrow’s Catalysts:
✴️ Nasdaq futures +3.28%, Amazon strong, Apple mixed, VIX down 7.57%. Risk appetite building up again.

✴️ $XOM ExxonMobil earnings, energy with oil pulling back slightly

✴️ $CVX Chevron and $ABBV AbbVie reporting

✴️ University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - final July reading

📅 Watch XLK RSI and VIX - does the bounce hold or is this a dead cat?

Tonight’s Earnings:

$AMZN:
• Revenue: $200.6B vs $196.47B expected ✅
• AWS: $42.2B - grew 37% vs 31% expected ✅
• Operating income: $27.5B, up 43% YoY ✅
• AWS operating margin: 39.4% ✅
• Advertising: $19.8B, up 26% YoY ✅
• AI + Chips: each exceeded $25B annual run rate ✅
• Free cash flow: -$7.6B trailing 12m ⚠️
• Q3 guidance: $197-202B vs $204.1B expected ⚠️
• Stock: +7% after hours

$AAPL:
• Revenue: $109.42B vs $108.65B expected ✅
• EPS: $2.02 vs $1.89 expected ✅
• iPhone: +22% YoY ✅
• Mac: $10.35B vs $8.74B expected ✅
• Services: $30.74B vs $31.22B expected ❌
• Gross margin: 50.1% ✅
• Weak guidance for Q4 citing "supply constraints”, this is the real problem ❌
• Stock: -8% after hours on miss and

Not financial advice

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