The U.S. Treasury just doubled the size of certain long-term bond buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Bitcoin and gold both jumped as markets started asking: is this an early step toward QE? Probably not — at least not yet. If the new buyback size continued for a full year, it would work out to roughly $128B. That sounds huge, but compared with roughly $11T of Treasuries that need to be refinanced or newly borrowed each year, it’s only about 1%. This isn’t money printing. Treasury is using existing cash to buy back bonds. The Federal Reserve isn’t creating new money to make these purchases. What matters is the signal. Treasury is showing that it’s willing to step in more aggressively when parts of the bond market need support. If problems in the Treasury market eventually become serious enough to bring the Fed back in, that would be a much bigger deal for inflation-sensitive assets like $XAU (Gold) and $BTC (Bitcoin) $BTC’s rally also had another possible catalyst: the U.S. administration made pro-crypto comments around the same time, so it’s difficult to know how much of the move came from the Treasury announcement alone. From a technical standpoint, though, Bitcoin had a strong move on high volume, closing above both the 2021 bull-market high (purple line) and the 200-day moving average (red line). The buybacks themselves are small. The market may care more about what they could eventually lead to.
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