Exiting my small $AVGO position, close to flat. I'm stepping aside ahead of earnings but it isn't a call on the company. Fundamentally nothing has cracked. Broadcom has guided AI semiconductor revenue to roughly $16B for the quarter, is carrying a backlog north of $30B, and the sell-side is still overwhelmingly positive with a mean target around $526. On fundamentals alone this is a HOLD or an ADD. The issue is the chart heading into a binary event. Price is below the 20 and 50-day MAs and testing the 200-day. It has trailed the S&P 500 over both the 20 and 50-day windows. MACD and the KST have crossed down, and the chart is flagging a bearish Megaphone Top with a measured objective well under my stop. One thing could override my decision and it's if AVGO gaps up Monday and reclaims the 50d MA (~$386) with the 200d holding.
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