The S&P closed above 7,800 for the first time in history yesterday. That is the headline. The story is the argument happening underneath it. Start with the memory run, because almost everyone got the reason wrong. SanDisk ($SNDK)ripped as much as 17%, Micron ($MU) added better than 5%, Western Digital and SK Hynix ($SKHY) ran with them. The trigger was not a price hike announcement. It was Nebius's earnings report. Buried in Wednesday's print was $37.5 billion in contracted future obligations and $8 billion of first-half capex, and the memory market did the arithmetic instantly: every dollar of multi-year GPU capacity that neoclouds lock in drags a proportional wall of NAND, HBM and enterprise SSD demand behind it. Add Grok 4.6 pricing tokens at a third of the competition, which expands inference volume, which is memory demand again. When a cloud company's backlog moves chip stocks the next morning, the shortage is contractual, not cyclical. The late day giveback was profit taking on parabolic charts, not a change in the story. Nebius ($NBIS) itself had the most two sided day in the book. It opened strong on those same numbers, then bled as a Hunterbrook report detailed two stop-work orders at its Vineland, New Jersey data center in a single week, one halting LNG tank work on August 6 and another halting fuel cell installation on August 10, both over permits. DA Davidson cut its target 30% on the delay risk. The company says the site remains on track. Full disclosure as always, this is my largest position, so here is exactly how I read it, the $37.5 billion of demand is contracted, the question Vineland raises is whether the capacity to serve it arrives on schedule. Permits are fixable problems. Timing guidance is the thing to watch at the next update. This is why the position is hedged, and why I sleep fine holding a stock that is up like CoreWeave, which is now roughly 80% higher in two weeks. Parabolas are rented, not owned. The Burry subplot continues. Chatter out of his Substack chat says the tone has gotten tense as the squeeze runs against his entries, and I flag that as exactly what it is, unverified chatter. What is verifiable is that he is not retreating an inch, doubling down on the circular financing thesis in writing. Say what you want about the man, he does not manage his conviction to the crowd's applause. One of us is going to be wrong, and both of us are paying for insurance while we find out. SpaceX ($SPCX), meanwhile, quietly completed one of the great sentiment round trips of the year. Two weeks ago the lockup was supposed to bury it. Yesterday it closed at $146, back above its IPO price, after another Starlink launch, and Elon disclosed a 48% personal stake. Founders who own half the company do not sell the future to fund the present. The float stays scarce, and the shorts who leaned on the unlock are now the fuel. Two honest notes from my own book. Ondas ($ONDS) grew revenue thirteen fold and raised its full year outlook to $550 million, and the stock fell 7% anyway because losses are still wide. The market has spent all week saying the same sentence, which is growth is assumed, show me margins. And Rocket Lab is raising fresh capital on the back of its record backlog, which is what smart companies do when their stock is strong and their order book is stronger. The quiet risk of the day is not American. Japan signaled a hawkish turn, and Tokyo shares wobbled on rate hike talk. Our PPI came in flat against expectations of an increase, the second tame inflation print in a week, so the Fed question is settled for now. If the world's cheapest funding currency gets more expensive, that is a different story. August 2024 taught everyone what a yen surprise does to leveraged books. Watch the yen, not just the Fed. And in the department of things being priced early, Washington is floating a capital gains tax cut while prediction markets push AOC up the 2028 board. The tax regime your exits depend on is already a traded market. Plan accordingly. Today: retail sales tells us about the consumer, and the SEC meets on tokenized stocks, which could put equities on chains trading around the clock. Records above, permits and parabolas below. Have a good weekend, and keep the insurance paid up.
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