It's Thesis Time!
Heyo!
So I been receiving a few DMs from followers asking my opinions and/or thesis on the stocks I talk about here the most like Nvidia, Palantir, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Ondas.
So I figured I'd covered all 5 of them here in one fell swoop. Mind you, it'll be long AF but I'll try to summarize as much as I can. Hope is of great value for you as it is for me typing it.
Let's start with my favorite one...
$NVDA - I think this one goes without saying, sitting at 22% of my portfolio is definitely my highest conviction player driven by its dominant position at the center of the AI infrastructure movement.
Why is it so well positioned you ask? Well simple, it has an overwhelming market leadership and deep moat. It holds roughly 75% to 90% of the AI accelerator market by revenue.
Their CUDA software ecosystem is the real player here as developers, and companies who own the software, have built years of tools, libraries, and optimized code around it. Switching costs would be extremely high.
Not to mention their Blackwell and the upcoming Rubin chips and also their high-speed data connection tools, NVLink and InfiniBand.
The demand is explosive and their Q1 results showed ~85% YoY revenue growth and a ~92% data center growth, their gross margin held at a whopping 75%. FCF generation is ridiculously enormous.
Hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions in CAPEX, a large portion of which flows to NVIDIA.
$PLTR - Another big favorite of mine also at a 22% and for good reason as it's one of the purest large scale plays on operational AI becoming a mission-critical infrastructure system rather than just another meh productivity tool.
Palantir basically create a central software system for large organizations. It connects all their separate databases and AI programs into one secure place, turning disorganized information into clear insights they can actually use such as:
~ Foundry - For Commercial Use
~ Gotham - For Government/Defense Use
Their massive moat lies in Ontology, which is basically a living digital model of the organization, objects, relationships, rules, security, and allowed actions of a company.
Their numbers were, in the words of CEO Alex Karp: "otherworldly," "staggering," and "bombastic", with a total revenue of $1.935 Billion (93% YoY), yes, with a B.
The full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15 billion (82% growth) and U.S. commercial guidance to at least $3.42 billion (134% growth).
They currently have around 1,049 customers worldwide between commercial and government and they all want to run AI on their own data in controlled environments and Palantir’s ability to work with open models, including Nvidia's Nemotron, inside air-gapped or classified settings is a definitive structural advantage.
Now, the stock isn't cheap but I'm betting on a target of a $1 trillion market cap by the early 2030s so it's definitely a long-term play for me.
Next up, the future of satellite communications, $ASTS. For those who don't know, AST SpaceMobile is building the first space-based cellular broadband network that works with ordinary, unmodified smartphones. Highly ambitious but very simple (in theory).
Basically utilize large low-Earth-orbit satellites with massive phased-array antennas the size of a football field to deliver real 4G/5G-like broadband (voice, data, video) directly to smartphones, filling the gaps that cell towers cannot reach.
These satellites act as a complementary layer that mobile network operators (MNOs) can use to extend their existing networks, hence the over 60 MNO partnerships that collectively cover more than 3 billion subscribers worldwide; that's a massive TAM or total addressable market!!
As of today, there's already 13 BlueBird satellites in orbit, with production scaling to around six per month and a target of 45 satellites for continuous coverage in key markets like U.S., Europe and Japan by early 2027.
Many people talk about SpaceX's Starlink competing against ASTS but that can't be any more further from the truth. While they have scale and launch advantages and its own direct-to-cell efforts, AST is primarily an enabler and an extension for carriers rather than a pure over-the-top competitor in many markets.
In other words, Starlink wants to become another MNO while ASTS will be complementing the already established MNOs, so who's getting that immediate revenue of billions of already established subscribers? ASTS of course!
While all of this is exciting, it certainly carries risks. Execution has to be on point, and achieving continuous coverage is paramount. There's competition and there's regulatory hurdles to overcome, but if they do this, and deliver continuous broadband service via major carriers, this could turn into one of the more asymmetric public market bets in connectivity and space infrastructure.
Now it's time for the rockets! No, not SpaceX, RKLB! It sits as one of the strongest pure-play public bets on the commercial + defense space economy.
This company has 2 segments: launch services and space systems.
~ Launch Service is pretty self explanatory.. They just launch rockets with their proven small-lift rocket, Electron. HASTE is their suborbital/hypersonic test vehicle popular with the U.S. military and Neutron is their medium-lift rocket similar to SpaceX's Falcon 9.
~ Space Systems is basically spacey stuff like satellite manufacturing, components, spacecraft, and related hardware. This is where the money's at.
Their Q2 2026 results showed a record revenue of $234 million (62% YoY), with Space Systems contributing the to the majority ($189.5 million). They even have a massive backlog of $2.36 billion (+137% YoY) which is absurd!
Their latest acquisition, Iridium, is a game changer. Rocket Lab now owns a profitable satellite communications company that includes 66+ satellite LEO constellation, global L-band spectrum and around 2.5+ million subscribers with roughly a $880–$900 million in annual revenue just on this alone. 😳
When this deal closes sometime in 2027, Rocket Lab will officially become vertically stacked: they'll design/build satellites, launch them on its own rockets, and operate constellations while selling recurring high-margin services.
As of the writing of this, Rocket Lab has completed a total of 93 launches across its Electron and HASTE programs and still has many more down the pipeline.
To me, they're a pure-play company with a massive backlog, capable of standing toe-to-toe with SpaceX, and if Neutron flies and the Iridium deal closes nicely, we're looking at a meaningfully larger and higher-quality business over the next 2–4 years.
Now let's get drony with the drone company that's revolutionizing this new sector, $ONDS. Simply put, Ondas Inc is a high growth defense and autonomous systems company that has scaled into a multi domain “system-of-systems” platform focused on drones, countrdrones, ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance), precision strike, unmanned ground systems, and other software.
It operates via their defense division, Ondas Sentinel and they serve defense, homeland security, public safety, and critical infrastructure to customers.
They have had an explosive revenue with a record of $83.8 million, which is roughly 13x YoY. Their full-year 2026 guidance was raised to $525–550 million which was more than 10x 2025 results of roughly $51 million.
Of course, as a defense stock, it'll benefit the most during war times like the ones we're going through in the Middle East and Ukraine and have accelerated demand for affordable, unmanned systems, layered counter-drone defenses, persistent ISR, and loitering munitions aka suicide drones.
Within the Ondas arsenal you'll find:
~ Counter-UAS Solutions - Sentrycs CoRF cyber/RF takeover and the Iron Drone Raider interceptor.
~ Long-endurance and stratospheric ISR - DZYNE ULTRA-type systems and World View Stratollites.
~ Autonomous ground robotics and industrial inspection.
~ Precision strike / kamikaze munitions.
Their partnerships with Lockheed Martin, Palantir, the US Army and the Israeli Ministry of Defense make them even stronger. Not to mention the crazy amount of acquisitions they've made lately such as:
~ Sentrycs for $224.6–225 million
~ DZYNE Technologies for $875.8–879 million
~ Cyberhawk for $125 million
~ World View for $145–150 million
~ Mistral for $175–180 million
~ Omnisys for $197–212 million
~ Roboteam for $81.7 million
~ Aran Defense for $33 Million
~ Bird Aerosystems for $128 million
This is a high risk, high reward story, not a faint for the heart investment. There's still chances of dilution (which we've seen many times now), operation risks while absorbing so many companies, cash burn and any geopolitical issues.
Overall to me, Ondas is delivering the next generation of automation for commercial and defense systems, they have strong numbers, great guidance, and assemble a multi-domain portfolio of companies at a pace few others can.
Told ya it was gonna be long but super informative. I hope you liked it and hope it helps whoever's interested in these companies like me.
:)
