O Beskar, Beskar! wherefore art thou Beskar? For those that care, I have been running around trying to get my laptop fixed! The processor fan (and apparently the entire heat sink failed) started grinding then abruptly quick working. A quick CTRL+ALT+DEL forced shutdown and then my computer was beeping critical error warnings without startup!!!! All while working to launch the upcoming Beskar membership! But I am back now…..and as we cross 9,300 followers, I owe you another KTS post! So let’s get right after it! Pour that Sunday morning coffee, cuddle up, and turn on the neurons! I haven’t caught up with Blossom yet but I’m certain the collapse in the precious metals market on Friday is the hottest topic (Beskar’s portfolio dropped -5.9% while $GLD and $SLV dropped -11.5% and -28.5%, respectively !). So we’ll use this KTS as a TIMELY one to address what to expect going forward. Price vs. TIME . Many of you that follow me know that this is a favorite topic of mine. How many TIMES does a new follower ask, “is this still a good buy?” ….. or …… my favorite …… “what price target do you have?” What’s the response??? Wolves control prices. I invest in TIME within the context of the real estate/banking crisis cycle. So what’s that mean, Beskar? Great question! First, we have to accept that wolves are fast moving, greedy, beady-eyed, carnivorous predators that thrive on price movements. They don’t care if a security goes up or down. It just needs to move …. for them to find a kill to eat. Price goes up….. they short it. Price goes down, they buy it. The quicker (velocity of price change), the better….so they can move on for more and more meat! Were you a wolf meal on Friday? (aka …. did you sell?) But when you invest in TIME within the context of the cycle, you willingly absorb these price fluctuations in exchange for compounded returns over the secular trend by stepping back and observing the longer-dated charts (KTS #15). For newbies, that means buying low and holding through these wolf oscillations…….AS LONG AS THE SECULAR TREND IS IN PLACE. Get it? Read this paragraph again. Again. Again. And re-read KTS #66. You have seen those compounded Beskar CALL LEAP trades rolling off like a printing press over the last month, right? You get those when you make moves on TIME, not PRICE. Get it? Good. Let’s move on. See, the important part of this approach, as Kenny Rodgers would say, is “knowing when to hold ‘em, when to walk away, and when to run.” So let’s take a deep dive into this question: IS THIS THE END OF THE SECULAR TREND IN PRECIOUS METALS? First, welcome to 2026. We knew that this will be the year of extreme volatility … and here in the first month starting off with a BANG! To break this down, I took the TIME to mark up the 1-year $GLD chart. Here’s some observations: *Did you forget about the -11.3% drop over 12 days in GLD from 10/20/25 to 11/4/2025? (See chart). *Did you forget about the -3.9% drop over just 4 days in GLD from 11/12/25 to 11/17/2025? (See chart) *Did you forget about the -5.2% drop over just 4 days in GLD from 12/26/25 to 12/31/2025? (See chart) Of course you did! Now, this -11.5% drop in 1 day is likely more memorable than those -1% per day grind lower for the above periods of TIME. But, will you be cursing this drop with regrets later this year when we look back? The answer is no. And here’s why: (1) You are not a wolf! You can’t run with this pack. None of us can. That’s why we pluck ‘em from the tree stands! The pack coordinates as a group and you aren’t invited. They decide how to jerk price movements and they ain’t sharing that with you! So is this the classic end of the month rebalancing pack? Is it those that know the script of “how goes January is how goes the year” pack and knows that 2026 is most volatile and play their part? Or is the collusion of the banks and the government pack of wolves? Those that follow me know that banks and governments are ONE AND THE SAME – they work together to control the earnings. You know how CME (bank) keeps upping the margins on gold, silver, palladium, and platinum and we get drops? Or isn’t it particularly TIMELY that TRUMP out of nowhere announces his new Fed Chair appointee Kevin Warsh on Friday way ahead of schedule? Governments and Banks. Or is it just a reaction by wolves – a temper tantrum of sorts – that Kevin Warsh is more hawkish (cares more about inflation than unemployment) and will resist rate cuts to help stocks climb higher? Or is it a great “squeeze” event like the late 1970’s Hunt Brothers? Maybe it’s just wolves feasting on your latecoming weak-handed retail peers rotating from Tech/Bitcoin to Metals? A flush ‘em out? Oh, the noise, noise, noise, noise! They'll bang on tong-tinglers. They'll blow their floo-flounders. They'll crash on jang-jinglers and bounce on boing-bounders! Then Whos young and old would sit down to a feast, and they'll feast and they'll feast. And they'll feast, feast, feast, feast! They'll eat their Who-pudding, and rare Who roast beast! Instead? Recognize that none of this matters. Skip the latest YouTube video on the complexities and particulars of this move. Instead…stay focused on secular trend within the context of the cycle. (2) Study the Beskar four pillars (KTS #80) of investing: Technicals, Fundamentals, Money Flows, and TIME. First up, let’s look at the Technicals – study the ticker tape. Reference the $GLD chart below carefully. I added each of those events (that you forgot about – red, blue, and yellow circles) below along with the current move (orange circle) that we’re currently experiencing. The secular trend is marked with that green line in the chart. Looks to me like $GLD should come down to $420.00 in the short-term? I won’t be surprised. And I certainly won’t panic. Will you? Probably! I want you to also look at the volume – the column chart - just beneath the price chart. Notice when the volume spikes over the past year, so do the price changes. The more volume, the more price change. That’s why this current move may feel like a gut punch if you are invested in metals. (3) Next pillar? Fundamentals. Look at the stick figure I drew. That’s the rolling EPS for Gold. Obviously, this chart keeps getting revised upward as the price of gold climbs. But go ahead and look at miners in gold, silver, and other metals. Remember KTS #17 and #75 A/B/C? That stick figure is going to keep climbing? You know why? Because KTS #28 told us that miners are basing estimates on a gold price of $3,500 and a silver price on $50. The miners are just getting ready to report and those that did – skyrocketing moves (e.g. $TRX). So have no fear! Onward we go! (4) Next pillar? Money flows. KTS #25. Re-read so as not to miss this one! But you know already that since 2022, the central banks around the world are buying up as much gold as possible. You heard Tether continues to stockpile for gold-backed currency amongst the world wide debt. At the virtual moment of this “crash”, JP Morgan adjusted their price target for gold to $8,000 !?!?! And CIBC adjusted their price target on proxy silver miner, Hecla Mining, from $27 to $32. We’re looking at a ~50% return on this miner from current prices if that target is hit. And with the volatility in 2026, that could be any day now!?!?!? What’s on our side is that the dollar broke and closed below the lows of 2025. That violation is enough to convince virtually every market participant that despite near-term fluctuations, there is only one direction for $DXY to continue to trend. With the average hedge fund owning just 2% of their portfolio in precious by the end of 2025, a simple doubling of this allocation to 4% means massive future inflows into it. There isn’t enough gold in the world to satisfy this……so the money will really start seeking out the profitable miners. So here’s an opportunity, eh? (5) The last pillar, TIME? The secular green line in the chart. This most neglected financial parameter of them all is the crystal ball. We know that at this Winner’s Curse stage of the meltup phase of the real estate/banking crisis cycle that commodities just continue to climb. We know also that historically, Gold does well in fear about the banking system, a declining dollar, inflationary pressures, and geopolitical conflicts. Every day the case for Gold just keeps getting stronger and stronger. And don’t forget Silver. While silver tends to better when the market is humming rather than safe haven searching, the increasing GDPs and interest in it is just now starting. You can do the same for the SLV as I did for GLD here to see the same knowing that historically Silver is way more volatile than Gold. As a fun exercise, I also included a max chart of gold/silver miner proxy, $CDE - going back to the late 1970’s. For two reasons. One, I suggest you download the image and mark a circle on this chart where you see Friday’s steep -16.8% drop. And realize the context within the secular trend that just broke out of a 13-year hibernation!?!?!? Context is everything. Oh yeah, the second reason I chose $CDE? I like to plant nuggets in posts for reference later on. Oh, be still my beating heart? So what now for you, Beskar? If the buying back of $GLD starts taking place tonight in China and Southeast Asia before we go down and make the logical touch on the secular green line in the chart below at ~$420.00, then that means the wolves just can’t help themselves to start chomping on the meat of price movement back upwards ….. per the secular trend. Price vs. TIME. Will you choose the right one? https://youtu.be/Kb5hMrBAtf8?si=u2FIL2d3vgv4iwrd This is the Way!
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94 Comments
Osmel @osmel86 · 6moEdited
Tea time 🫖 and enjoying this reading🎉🎉🎉. I’m sure most of the blossomers were waiting for it 😂😂. Thanks bros 🤙🏾🤙🏾
Jesse Franklin@pinnaclewealth · 6mo
Great information as always. Silver drop was simply a slam as you would say by the wolves . If you look at the money flows on $SLV the news still 6.8 Billion inflows to 5.95 billion outflows , there was 2 major short sales on Friday , when the first didn’t work like planned they hit it with another total around . There is still around 160 million short shares with only one day to cover , also appears to be a big order blocks ( overhead supply) 78 - it’s going to get interesting hopefully weak hands got flushed on Friday
Michael Dube@revival.shop · 6moEdited
Great information sir TY I will give it a good read this afternoon. BTW I noticed you and @osmel86 had top volume posts last month congrats to you both! Well done gents ! 🏆
Carlos @dividendcarlito · 6moEdited
Beskar aka The Truth Every post of yours is TIMEly. I appreciate it. Investors need to zoom out for the most part and understand the secular trend we are in. I made a post on Friday highlighting the sharp pullbacks that look dramatic in the moment but ultimately serve as structural retests within a larger trend. What matters isn’t the speed of the decline but where price stabilizes relative to the broader cycle. The framework here around price vs. time reinforces that idea: fast moves are noise, but the underlying trend is defined by how markets behave once the volatility settles. Retests during strong secular phases tend to reset positioning, shake out short‑term participants, and rebuild the base needed for the next leg. From a cycle perspective, these kinds of resets are not only expected — they’re healthy. The key is watching whether the long‑term trendline, fundamentals, and money flows remain aligned. When they do, the retest becomes an opportunity rather than a warning. Best thing about this post, is that I highlighted $CDE as well in my morning publication today on Substack. Fits perfectly to your message here :)
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