I don’t own $META today, but I think the next 1-2 years could create a great opportunity to build a position. My base case is that $META could spend a lot of that time somewhere around $550-$650 as investors digest one of the largest investment cycles in the company’s history. Meta expects $130-$145B of capex in 2026. Q2 alone saw $31.1B of capex, and free cash flow fell to just $784M. That sounds scary until you look at what is happening underneath. Revenue still grew 28% YoY. Advertising revenue grew 27%. And management continues to say it has ROI-positive opportunities to deploy even more compute. Meta isn’t spending heavily because the core business is weakening. It’s spending heavily because it believes AI infrastructure can make an already dominant advertising business even stronger while creating entirely new products and revenue streams over time. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock goes nowhere for a while. And I’d view that as a gift. If $META stays discounted while capex, depreciation and AI infrastructure spending weigh on near-term free cash flow, that could give investors a long window to accumulate before the economics of those investments become much more visible. I don’t own it yet, but it’s very high on my watchlist. Over the long term, I think $1,500+ is absolutely possible if Meta executes on what it is building today.
546 views
0 Comments
Join the conversation with 500,000+ other investors 💸
Create an account to get access to everything Blossom has to offer!
📊 Personalized algorithm based on your investing style, experience level and interests
📈 Powerful portfolio and dividend tracking tools
👀 See what top creators and others in the community are investing in
