There's been a lot of excitement around the recent $SPCX IPO and rightfully so IMO... With that said, the excitement around retail investor participation is a bit overblown, again IMO. Why? It would have been a lot more exciting if SpaceX came public a few years back when trading at a fraction of today's valuation... Heck, even mid-last year when trading @ $400B valuation would have been nice. My take? The vast majority of SpaceX wealth in percentage terms has already been made by those who invested in the private SpaceX. As an example... SpaceX had a $400B valuation only a year ago, so private investors 5x'd their investment over the past year alone and far more than that going back further. For those investing now, SPCX would need to trade at a $10+ Trillion valuation for a 5x and that's not happening in the foreseeable future or likely ever IMO. Ultimately, the individual investors entering during IPO or after will essentially be exit liquidity for SpaceX, the insiders and the uber-rich early investors, at least for the time being IMO... Hopefully those providing liquidity can make a bit of a profit for themselves as well. TBD...
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8 Comments
David @zingr · 1mo
It’s a gambling ticker. Best case scenario is that SpaceX does what Tesla does on a larger scale. You ride the wave up and get off before it comes down
SuperGrowth Stocks @kyle_profits · 1mo
I completely agree with this. I think it is very prudent to wait at least 6, 7, 8 months to see where price goes as the majority of shares have unlocked after 6 months. Something around 75-85%, if I'm not mistaken. Then the remaining 10-15% of OG investors get the rest of the unlock after 366 days. I think there will be even more selling then. I think SPCX could hit maybe a $3T valuation, which is absolutely massively overvalued. I think a healthy 50-65% pullback would be a good spot to start loading for the long-haul. Anything <$1.75T market cap would be a good starting point. $1.5T - $1T, IMPO. $120 - $80/share.
Nikki @nikkiesha09 · 1mo
I bought shares at $160. It’s now trading at $212 and it will probably stay above $200 until the first earnings report. I plan to sell half of my position before the first unlocking for a partial profit and let the remaining shares ride out.
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