Am I too bullish on $OSCR? I ran a 5-year valuation model, and here is what I got: Bear case: $36 Base case: $78 Bull case: $171 Probability-weighted target: $91 The reason my model is this bullish is pretty simple. Oscar is growing revenue fast, membership is scaling, MLR is improving, and the company is finally starting to show real operating leverage. My base case does not assume some crazy software multiple either. It assumes 15% annual revenue growth, modest dilution, and a 1.0x sales multiple. The bull case only works if Oscar keeps growing near 20% annually and the market starts viewing it more like a healthcare growth platform instead of just a traditional insurer. The bear case is still $36, which is why I think the risk/reward is so interesting. Yes, $OSCR is risky. Policy risk is real. Medical costs matter. Execution has to stay strong. But if they keep scaling the way I think they can, I believe this stock could look very cheap in hindsight.
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5 Comments
Scott S@scottsinvesting · 1mo
Are you "too bullish on $OSCR?" IMO, yes... With that said, differing opinions are what makes the market work. FWIW... I hope I'm wrong and you continue doing very well with your OSCR investment.
Nicholas @investorgordi · 1mo
Also overlooked right now. Also looking at Billion to One BLLN I like the message they are putting out, the company however is only 6 months from IPO is its at the consider spot.
Nicholas @investorgordi · 1mo
Good free cash flow, low debt, strong 3 year CAGR. This is in my watch list as is GRAB and ZETA.
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