A bit late this quarter, but here are my updated portfolio fair value and growth projections for Q1 2026! On a portfolio basis, cash remains about ~30%, and as of today YTD my portfolio has returned -2.78%. (Driven lower by $SHOP, $MELI and $AXP.) Now without further ado, here are the numbers (as of Q1 2026): 1. $GOOGL Fair Value: $250.00 USD Implied Multiple (OCF): 20x Growth Estimate (5y OCF CAGR): 10% Current Rating: Hold 2. $AMZN Fair Value: $220.00 USD Implied Multiple (OCF): 20x Growth Estimate (5y OCF CAGR): 10% Current Rating: Hold 3. $MELI Fair Value: $3,000 USD Implied Multiple (adj. FCF): 25x Growth Estimate (5y adj. FCF CAGR): 15% Current Rating: Buy 4. $BN Brookfield is harder to estimate given business type (it’s a fee-earning asset manager, but also a completely separate massive capital deployer across real assets and more, and a holding company with its own balance sheet). The company is all based on DE since its financial statements are essentially illegible, which as a multiple has remained close to 15x historically. Sum of the parts alongside current DE growth is usually how I estimate valuation for the company. Since a DCF makes no logical sense here. Brookfield owns (roughly, in USD): * 73% of $BAM ($57.14b) * 46% of $BEP-UN ($5.21b) * 26% of $BIP-UN ($4.64b) * 61% of $BBUC ($4.16b) * 100% of $BNT ($2.98b) The company also reports real estate assets (as of Q1 2026) at $85.74b, and other non-real estate infrastructure assets across its portfolio (as of Q1 2026) at $168.25b. But there’s no way to personally verify these numbers so I’m excluding them here. This means, adding together (plus $15.03b in cash sitting on the balance sheet, and minus current corporate liabilities of $14.27b), BN’s public stakes are worth $74.89b USD, compared to its current market cap of $112.24b USD. Now, unless you believe BN’s real estate and other infrastructure assets are only worth $37.35b in total (compared with the reported $254b), there’s a large discrepancy in value. But of course, business complexity, and the simple fact that its targeted 15% DE growth is mainly dependent on realizations (dependent on credit cycles and the economy overall), means this discrepacy is likely to continue. A well-priced Brookfield according to me would be somewhere around $200 billion USD, which puts fair value at $85 USD / $117 CAD per share. Though as a business, that target relies on the market valuing it accordingly. 5. $SHOP Fair Value: $100.00 CAD Implied Multiple (OCF): 25x Growth Estimate (5y FCF CAGR): 15% Current Rating: Hold 6. $AXP Fair Value: $250.00 USD Implied Multiple (P/E): 20x Growth Estimate (5y Earnings CAGR): 8% Current Rating: Hold 7. $UBER Fair Value: $70.00 USD Implied Multiple (adj. FCF): 20x Growth Estimate (5y adj. FCF CAGR): 12% Current Rating: Hold That’s it. Happy investing, folks. For my free spreadsheet: https://buymeacoffee.com/jnicholas/e/239499 For all of holdings’ research and theses: https://link.blossomsocial.com/7uYa/nvghxcps
