📉🔻 reflection: why this week turned bearish
Four headliners, one story: rates 📊
1. The bond market rejected an intervention. 🏛️
The 30-year hit its highest yield in nearly two decades. Treasury pledged Wednesday to at least double buybacks of 10-, 20- and 30-year debt - yields dropped hard, then fully reversed by Thursday, climbing back above pre-announcement levels. When the market fades a direct intervention inside 24 hours, that's a repricing.
2. Hawkish FOMC minutes. 🦅
A majority judged upside inflation risk greater than labor-market risk. Rate-cut hope, gone.
3. Walmart. 🛒
Beat and raised, but US comps grew 2.6% vs. 3.7% expected - slowest in six years. Stock -9.4%, worst day since 2022, and most of Thursday's 704-point Dow drop.
4. Oil and Iran. 🛢️
Brent near $93-94 on escalating sanctions rhetoric. That's what keeps the inflation - and yield - story alive.
Thursday's close: S&P 7,641, Nasdaq 26,067. Friday is repairing, led by financials and crypto, but bonds still aren't confirming. ⚖️
The honest read: this wasn't an equity problem. Earnings were fine. What broke was faith in the long end - everything else was downstream. 🎯
Next up: Jackson Hole, NVDA, PCE 👀📅
