Are Ethereum Whales Signalling a Bottom?
Ethereum has fallen to levels of pain not seen across its largest holders in years. According to on-chain analyst Darkfost, every major ETH whale group is now sitting on an unrealized loss at the same time. That includes wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH, those holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH, and even wallets controlling more than 100,000 ETH.
The largest holders remained profitable through much of the brutal 2022 crypto winter, making their current losses particularly notable. ETH reached a record high near $4,954 on August 24, 2025. It is now trading around $1,580, roughly 68% below that peak. It lost about 29% during the first quarter of 2026 and is currently on pace for another negative quarter.
Historically, periods when large ETH holders collectively moved into losses have sometimes occurred near major market bottoms. That does not prove the bottom is already in. Whales can remain underwater for months, and further declines can still force leveraged or weaker holders to sell.
However, it does suggest that much of the speculative excess from the 2025 rally has now been removed.
Options positioning has also become somewhat more bullish, with recent call volume exceeding put volume. Since options can be used for speculation, income or hedging we can't use them as guarantee that institutions expect an immediate recovery.
Wall Street’s forecasts show just how uncertain Ethereum’s outlook remains. Citi recently lowered its 12-month ETH target to $3,175, with a bearish scenario of $1,198 and a bullish scenario of $4,488. Standard Chartered is targeting approximately $4,000 by the end of 2026.
The bullish argument is not that ETH cannot fall further. It is that Ethereum continues to sit at the centre of stablecoins, tokenized assets, decentralized finance and institutional blockchain development while its price and investor sentiment have collapsed. Retail investors are looking at an asset down nearly 70%. Long-term bulls see infrastructure being built during another crypto winter.
Whether this is the bottom remains unknown, but the risk-and-reward calculation looks very different at $1,580 than it did near $5,000.
