Unpopular opinion, or maybe not, but I currently see more valuation upside in $LUNR than $RKLB, despite $RKLB recently acquiring $IRDM. Intuitive Machines has at least 10 major "space systems" catalysts coming up by the end of the year. Meanwhile, I’m expecting $RKLB to delay Neutron into early next year, and the $IRDM acquisition won’t close until mid-2027. Short term the few other catalysts for $RKLB is a satellite bus contract ($VSAT x Space42) + potentially a ~$700 million contract for the Mars Telecommunication Network spacecraft. Large contracts potentially, but not as many opportunities as $LUNR. 👀 Demand for space systems keeps growing, so I don’t think $RKLB revenue will stagnate, they just have to continue to delivery. I remain super bullish overall (especially since their announcement last week to acquire Iridium!!) Since acquiring Lanteris, $LUNR is no longer just a lunar infrastructure company. It now has broader space systems (and national security) exposure, so I now consider them as a semi-direct competitor to $RKLB. As requested by many Blossomers, here are a few upcoming awards for $LUNR and why they matter. 1. MDA (Missile Defense Agency, not $MDA) $LUNR submitted an updated proposal for the first 18 of 45 satellites through Lanteris x $LHX. The decision was expected in June, so I assume this is imminent. Based on previous and similar contracts from other space companies, this could potentially be a $500 million contract. 2. CLPS 1.0 (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) Seven more missions are expected to be announced by the end of the year. IM-5 was awarded in March, and during NASA’s Moon Base update last week, a sixth mission was awarded. 3. Undisclosed order for 2 satellites Management said they already have authority to proceed on two satellites for an undisclosed customer. They expect the contract to convert into backlog once it is signed. 4. CLPS 2.0 This is the second phase of lunar deliveries for heavier cargo landers beyond 2028. NASA has already awarded IM-5 for 2030, which uses $LUNR heavier cargo lander, Nova-D. Bigger contracts and opportunities are expected. 5. Project NEXUS Phase 1 This is a commercial Ka-band relay concept opportunity as NASA transitions away from TDRSS, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System. Multiple Phase 1 awards are expected later this year, followed by a down-select, similar to the Lunar Terrain Vehicle contracts. 6. U.S. Space Force Andromeda SG-XX Expected later this year, this is part of an indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract for next-generation GEO space-domain awareness satellites. 7. CP-32 CLPS A potential delivery task order for an instrument suite and rover to the Ina volcanic feature on the Moon. Lunar volcanoes! 🌋 8. Orbital Transfer Vehicle Phase III Management said Nebula passed CDR, or Critical Design Review, with its national security customer and is awaiting a Phase III award. 9. Earth Re-entry Vehicle Zephyr Phase II $LUNR is expecting a grant from the Texas Space Commission to fund a prototype following a successful CDR. 10. AFRL AMAC ($10B S&T Multiple-Award IDIQ) This is a $10 billion-ceiling science and technology indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract over an 8-year period. … And this is just the list of new contracts and task orders expected for 2026 for $LUNR. Later this year, the company also plans to close the Goonhilly acquisition, launch its third lunar delivery mission (IM-3), deploy its first lunar relay satellite for the multi-billion-dollar $4.8B Near Space Network IDIQ contract, and more. Looking beyond 2026, there are also more multi-billion-dollar national security opportunities in the pipeline, along with lunar reactors, space reactors, and other long-term infrastructure opportunities. My hope is that $LUNR eventually acquires both $AMTM and Astranis to bring nuclear expertise and connectivity technologies. They are currently raising $500 million through an at-the-moment offering and each time they’ve acquired a company it has brought some positivity (revenue diversification, bid on more multi-billion contracts, etc.) Generally seeing a company raising money is negative, but it depends on how the capital is used. $LUNR has raised +$500M to acquire Lanteris, which now adds more contract possibilities, increases full-year revenue by nearly 5x and enables positive EBITDA. A good example is $RKLB announcement on $IRDM acquisition last week. Overnight, Rocket Lab got a lot closer to becoming a SpaceX competitor on space infrastructure and connectivity (without the AI/compute side lol) I believe there’s no other way to succeed as a space company if the company is not diversifying their revenue enough. Most space companies will raise capital to either be able to operate year-long ($SPCE) or to bring their product to life ($ASTS). This is where I see an issue… When your entire revenue depends on one highly capital-intensive manufacturing rollout going right, I don’t see the appeal as an investment. This is why I’ve never been into $ASTS. It’s like putting your whole portfolio into one stock: if that stock fails, your portfolio gets crushed. Same for a company: if the whole business depends on one product/project and it fails or gets delayed, what else do they have to sell? If a space company fails to deliver because of some technical or financial challenges, per history it can quickly end in bankruptcy. The quantity of space stocks that are down 90% is insane. I’ve been saying this for two years (see my post: https://link.blossomsocial.com/7uYa/z6njpqlw), but this is part of why $ASTR (rip) and many other space companies have failed. My rule of thumb when investing in a space company is to imagine what could happens if execution takes 2-3x longer than expected… would the company be in trouble? 👀 —— TL;DR I’m bearish on space companies that choose to not diversify their revenue streams and burn most of their capital on one product at a time 😅
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