SpaceX has released its long-awaited S-1 to become a publicly-traded company on Nasdaq (and Nasdaq Texas!) under the ticker $SPCX. If you invest in SpaceX, you would actually invest into three companies: a space business, a connectivity business and an AI business. SpaceX’s revenue surged 33% to $18.7 billion in 2025, but net income plummeted from $791 million in 2024 to a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025, reversing a nearly $6 billion loss in a year. The losses in 2025 are attributed to management’s decision to allocate $9.5 billion to R&D (Starship program and orbital AI compute) instead of reporting operating income. Connectivity alone generated $11.4 billion in 2025, up 49.8% with $4.4 billion in operating income. Musk has 85% control over the company (so it’s impossible for public investors to remove him as CEO). Musk’s pay package vests depending on market cap milestones from $500B to $7.5T and "the company’s establishment of a permanent human colony on Mars with a least one million inhabitants" 👽 302M shares will be granted to Musk if non-Earth-based data centers deliver 100 TW of compute per year. Okay, now my take.. SpaceX is not really a traditional space stock. It’s seems like it’s a vertically integrated mix of launch infrastructure, global satellite connectivity, and orbital AI compute… all these side businesses with the objectives of establishing a permanent Mars base. The losses appear to be a choice as management spends massively on Starship and orbital AI compute. For a long time, Starlink has been the one financing it all. The $15 billion/year Anthropic contract through 2029 could maybe push SpaceX into profitability on its own, but management will likely decide to invest that into Starship and orbital AI compute along with what Starlink already brings. Every dollar of profit will be reinvested into the ambitious objective of colonizing Mars by investing into R&D for Starship and AI. Because most projects of SpaceX operate on decade-long timelines, this is a big risk if you plan to invest into SpaceX. But if they do succeed in colonizing Mars, this is going to be humanity’s greatest achievement and one accomplished by a public company! I won’t be investing into SpaceX directly (okay I might just buy one share for the symbolic 🤪) I will be investing through $ORBX if it ever gets added. Here is my latest article on @bdinvesting newsletter to learn more about SPCX S-1 filing: https://bdinvesting.substack.com/p/spacex-is-really-an-ai-stock-in-disguise
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31 Comments
Mike L@noviceadvisor · 3mo
It looks like a....
Renniegade @renniegade4life · 3mo
Hard pass on anything connected with Elon Musk.
AbundanceSeeker @abundance_seeker · 3mo
Reading this makes me think of Amazon during its earlier days. It was operating at a loss for a long time, investing in the future. I think at that time, many had a hard time envisioning what Amazing would truly become in 20 years. I feel the same about space in general. Now we say space…but in 20 years or more, it will be the new economy. Thanks for the writeup.
David @zingr · 3mo
The thesis for SpaceX isn’t anything listed on the prospectus. The real thesis that nobody wants to admit is that Elon Musk can convince a bunch of addicted gamblers to dump as much money as they can into this, while it never achieves any of the grandiose promises he’s been making to hype it up.
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