When I developed my investment thesis for retirement, I looked at both fundamental and technical analyses. Technical are the investors' footprints reacting to fundamental. To me, there is no bigger fundamental variable than population. A country's population pyramid determines a country's future. The boiling point will hit different countries at different times. There is no better place to watch this playing out than here in Japan. The ratio between pensioners and workers will drop further from current 1:2. Foreigner workers are being pushed out before they can start pension payments. Full refund payments are impossible. AI, robotic automation cannot arrive faster. You can draw your own conclusions for your portfolio. To me, I would trust a CEO on SP500 or Nasdaq than a money-printing politician. This is why I rely on cash from cc ETF instead of bonds. This video has a good explanation between population and debt. https://youtu.be/_rwFYNlKtEc?si=cGLco1nK9yr8JDrd
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3 Comments
Ed @edsam · 15dEdited
@anpc86 I previously posted using a 2x2 to categorize the investment universe. I decided on the high volatility/cash quadrant. Bond market collapsing is pretty extreme. Then again ask Germany about the old Marks in the last century. You can argue how much more income tax burden the electorate will tolerate. The easy way out is actually mandating insurance and pensions to buy more bonds. The private vs public bond battle is already playing out. For example, Alphabet has more fire power to offer higher yields than uncle Sam. https://link.blossomsocial.com/7uYa/8ka1iuko
Jesse Franklin@pinnaclewealth · 14d
Agree - just for the people lurking in the comments there can be government bonds / treasuries , corporate bonds ( companies private & public ) municipal bonds ( Cities / local governments) and Mortage bonds
Not Financial Advice @anpc86 · 15d
I can follow your line of thought about trusting a CEO on SP500 or NASDAQ than money-printing politician.... then got lost when it became relying on cash from CC ETF instead of bonds... "...in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes." - government bonds are backed by the power to tax, companies can go bankrupt... if bond market collapse, this should have a detrimental effect on the stock market, and if that's the case, CC ETF should tank or not generate the premiums you are expecting, then the distributions should follow suite... drawing my own conclusion...but in pencil I am with you that Japan is a canary country with its bond market, demographics and policies
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