For those of you who prefer the educated perspectives of industry pros over the âYield Brosâ below is a link to El-Erianâs most recent âWeekly Look at Global Economy & Marketsâ Here are 3 key points I thought were worth highlighting⌠âźď¸ âLooking ahead, global macro markets are entering a delicate phase in which fundamentals, policy, and technical factors all point to greater fragility. The week will be dominated by a heavyweight trio of central bank decisions (Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England), alongside a heavy calendar of tier-one data releases. All this as the focus intensifies on the technical dynamics of the bond and energy markets.â âźď¸ âThe Federal Reserve faces a lose-lose dilemma. Financial markets have effectively boxed the central bank in by pricing in an above 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the conclusion of Wednesdayâs FOMC meeting. If the Fed validates this pricing and ignites expectations of a hiking cycle, it risks overtightening and compounding downside pressures in rate-sensitive areas such as housing. Conversely, should the Fed hold rates steady, it risks appearing behind the curve, potentially unanchoring inflation expectations and triggering an abrupt steepening at the long end of the yield curve.â And last (but not least)⌠âźď¸ âThis brings us to an important technical dynamic to monitor: fixed-income positioning and the risk that interest-rate pressure could trigger credit risk. So far, corporate credit (and the broader economy) has remained remarkably insulated, cushioned by robust earnings and buffers. But as higher sovereign yields and elevated input costs persist, income and balance-sheet strains could lead to widening credit spreads and downward earnings revisions. Investors must bear in mind: when interest-rate pressure is protracted, credit risk tends to enter the frame.â đ¤ Hereâs the link to full article which includes a few other trends to watch: https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-e94 âââ- Marco moves slow. Markets move fast. Hope of continued strong earnings continues to keep markets optimistic. If/when that hope gives way to macro forces things may change. Personally I feel we are close to a tipping point. But Iâve felt that way for a while and have been wrong (early?). So as always - weâll see what happens. Regardless - itâs always best to plan ahead. âď¸ Protecting capital is part of growing capital đŚ Perspective â Prediction Do whatâs best for you. đđ
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Michael Conroy@conroy119 ¡ 4d
Its crazy out there! I am leaning more towards the view that we are in the 1998ish time frame, analogus to the dotcom bubble. Things are only really just starting to manifest with the AI revolution. Thats at least what my anecodtal experience and perspective is as a software guy.
Le Corb@lecorb ¡ 4d
Great reminder @etf.go to consider the risks! Iâll add China is now back to buying oil, oil reserves are at historical lows globally but especially the US, while production/supply is offline impacting refineries and diesel now nearing $200/b. Inflation continues to creep higher, and long bond yields keep creeping higher in spite of interventions. Valuations are now an earnings yield that is below the risk free rate, the market has not reactedâŚyet. Quietly in the background value stocks and ETFâs have 2x the S&P500 YTD⌠$500B in new bonds this year, over $1T next year⌠Donât you love late cycle investing? đ˘
Perry's PIIverse@piiverse ¡ 4d
All mentioned in this post plus the added stress of the us iran war... and Ukraine blowing up Russian refineries... and the inflation driving us tariffs... and major respective disruption in global trade.... These were all reasons why back last December I made major shifts in my income portfolio strategy because I truly felt there was a good chance for a 2026 major global correction.
Jesse Franklin@pinnaclewealth ¡ 4d
The even scary part is where the AI build out is getting their money from itâs mostly insurance companies and pension funds
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