Look for someone who sounds really, really, really, really certain and definite about something NOBODY can actually know about the future (they love the word conviction/confidence). Here's some examples... The market WILL crash in 4-6 quarters. AI stocks ARE going to explode in 2027 Space IS the next trillion fdollar opportunity and, and, and these 3 stocks will be the winners (said super excitedly fast 😆). My DCF model says $tsla or $spcx will return 15% the next ten years. Modeling and forecasting is as accurate as using your literal foot to measure the size of a country . It may be in the 'ballpark', at best... The bigger the item to measure, the more inaccurate it will be with your foot. Yesterday, some friends and I were talking about leverage/margin use and how extreme these views on blossom were. That's the inspiration for this post and one of the key takeaways about the financial advice/takes we see on socials. I believe one of the biggest tells of bad financial advice is what it APPEALS to. If it's an appeal to your emotions, you better know the incentive of the one giving it. For example, fear gets a ton of clicks and engagement. GET OUT NOW!!!!!! Sell NOW!!!!!! This is the START of the CRASH!!!!! Do you know what else gets clicks and engagement... The opposite end of that spectrum.... EUPHORIA For example, THIS IS THE NEXT BIG THING GUYS!!!! (Yes, I am yelling 😂) $BTC is going to 500,000 next year! Buy as much (insert stock or ETF here) BEFORE it breaks out tomorrow!!!! What about uncertainty, the unknown, the cons of a stock, an ETF, a strategy? Uncertain and or balanced advice doesn't sell nearly as many subscriptions, as many products or get nearly as many clicks or engagement. It's the reality of our emotions driving action more than our logical side of our thinking. Thank you marketing tricks 🙄 Here's another good tell for terrible advice. It's anecdotal at best and never back by strong unbiased data and academic research. My favorite tell of bad advice is using short term performance or data for long term results or forecasting. I see this with people sharing a short term chart to explain why this is better than that. If I see ANY of the following things, I quickly label it as bad financial advice/content ... Emotionally inducing content... Does it make you afraid? Does it make you euphoric? Does it give you FOMO? Precise prediction content.... Is there an extremely precise prediction on market timing? Is there a precise prediction on price or the worst, the time and price slap to your intelligence. Urgency to act content.... Is there a deadline to buy a stock, a product, a referral code, etc? Incentive based content... Does it provide benefit to the creator? Are any conflicts openly mentioned and acknowledged? Extremist view content Does the content completely ignore uncertainties and negatives? And or does the content highlight only the positives OR negatives? Does it make too good to be true claims? Solid financial principles are rarely exciting and sexy and definitely never a get rich quick trick or tip. It's usually pretty low adrenaline pumping advice that your grandfather would give over a coffee ☕ It should sound more like... 'here's what we know... Here's what we don't know...Here are several possible outcomes or one of several possibilities.' Oh and by the eay, I don't know what I don't know about this topic. And if or when someone gets a prediction right, it doesn't automatically make them skilled. If enough people on blossom make enough predictions, somebody is going to look like a genius eventually. That doesn't give credibility to their advice or content. The question we need to ask about financial advice isn't, were they right (stock picks, leverage, cc ETFs, small caps etc) or did it anecdotally work for them.... It is, can they DEMONSTRATE that they can REPEATEDLY make these predictions BEFORE the outcome is known? So the next time someone tells you the market is definitely going to crash… or explode upward... or that AI, space, robotics, nuclear or some other shiny new theme is definitely going to rocket... Skip that content.... seriously Good financial advice is balanced, reasonable and can apply to different time periods and in different circumstances. And to generalize completely, the louder and noisier the prediction or claim is, the more carefully you should be checking for solid academic evidence.  Have a great weekend everyone 😊
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37 Comments
Mr Financial@mr.financial · 7h
Here's an example I couldn't fit in the post, referenced in the attached pic. Let's walk through the market for a minute... how good are the professionals, in your opinion, at beating the market? Are you WAY smarter than them? Wall Street has some incredibly smart people, I believe it's fair to say some of the smartest on the planet. PHDs. Economists. Quants. Teams of researchers. Add to that the billions of dollars of resources they have between all of them. ALL THAT and they still can't consistently predict market returns... Not even close. Vanguard has been predicting low US large cap growth for at least 8 years now 😂 🤣 When we look at the evidence from professional active managers, it is pretty brutally ugly. Brugly sounds good. According to the latest SPIVA Canada data, 89% of Canadian domiciled us equity funds underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025... Over 10 years, that number was 97%!!!! For Canadian equity funds, 99% underperformed the TSX Composite over 10 years. Yuk!!! Brugly! And of the Canadian funds that were in the top quartil five years ago in 2021, only ONE, UNO, that's 1, managed to remain in the top quartile for each of the following four years. Bruglier! If someone had one great year, that tells us very little. And they really shouldn't be using that as the basis for their anecdotal evidence.  If they consistently outperform for decades, THEN we can start talking about how they were able to systematically perform better than the market... However, when people with billions of dollars, enormous research departments and teams of analysts can't consistently beat a boring index like the S&p 500 or predict it... I'm going to be pretty skeptical of the guy on IG, tiktok, YouTube, blossom who has discovered the exact date of the next market crash or the next amazing stock going to 10x.Â
solomon @ambessa · 6h
Haha, loved your post! Nailed it. Blossom's got a lot of noise. Some people act like religious preachers, summoning us to follow their "miraculous" guidance or else 😄 Maybe that's the feature: articulate, balanced, reasonable, nuanced? You're shrugged off—zero credibility. Brutally assertive, demagogic, hyperbolic, vitriolic? That gets the audience. rewarding outrage over reason !
Ronan @ronan · 7h
Absolutely fantastic post that every investor should read before making financial decisions The absolute key to being a REAL intellectual investor, is having a willingness to be wrong Any investor who refuses to show you the scenario where their opinion is totally wrong, is doing nothing but spreading false hope and idea Like you said, the sign of a good investor is one who can balance ALL information and come to a reasonable well-informed conclusion, while also being open to their idea actually being false If you’re trying to prove something and refuse to even fathom you might be wrong, I’m very likely not going to continue the conversation nor listen to what you’re saying. No matter your strategy, eventually your finances should become boring and repetitive. Good investing is boring, and unfortunately boring doesn’t get views Be careful what stranger online you listen to about advice, one wrong decision can cost you a lot of money
Eldon @selldon · 5h
Wholeheartedly agree. Also, $BTC is going to a million in 2030!!!
An Bh@anbha · 2h
The best thing to in investing is to buy something good . And Do nothing
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