Originally published on Blossom on March 24th, 2024 Please find retrospective commentary at the end. My aim is to help investors avoid the common, conventional wisdom pitfalls â that are always present â but really start to be more frequently broadcasted to the masses at this point in the cycle. As we continue to melt up in these final 6 to 8 quarters before the cycle completion, activity, news flow, speculation, fear, greed, and irrationality really gets going. It is just starting on the cusp of a prolonged period of a fevered pitch. So you may ask yourself, why would I want to buy into a period of irrationality? The simple answer is because you can literally log a decade worth of returns in this final phase. Donât believe me? Go back and study the culmination of real estate/ banking crisis cycles going back to the markets beginning. Clockwork. So while the conventionalists (those that preach the word and lessons of âconventional wisdomâ found in any average investing for dummies book) are building energy right now for a full out assault on your thinking and your portfolio by keeping you out of stocks, you need to keep a clear mind, study for yourself, and continue to be a participant in this TIME of great returns. By the way, most of these conventionalists are good, well-intentioned, intelligent soldiers that donât even know they are enlisted! Instead, we take profitable actions. If you follow my portfolio, you can see how it is probably graded (based on types of companies, risk levels, AND percent of holdings) MORE CONSERVATIVE than your portfolio - yet the returns are greater. So please donât take this post as a calling to jump head first into speculative stocks. In this part of the meltup phase the conventionalists are going to harp on you to protect yourself and run into SPY ETFs. While some of that is always a solid holding, you are in a momentum, stock pickerâs market. This is a time where the SPY can move sideways or slightly up for a long time but select stocks can rocket. Theyâll talk to you about investing being a marathon, and after 40 years it really begins to compound, etc. But if you are an observer in this only 5x in a lifetime event, you will likely regret. Because once the cycle completes, it typically takes 6-7 years to take out new market index highs. If you donât believe that, then go study the ticker tape. Itâs all right there in front of you to learn, perfectly recorded for anyone that takes the TIME. So donât miss out on this period of AMAZING returns and give your nest egg a boost before the period of stagnancy that follows. Because it will take TIME to work through the mess that leads to this collapse - it ALWAYS (thatâs right, I used ALWAYS) does. For a specific approach that can help you position right now, read my earlier posts and track my trades, especially the one on Follow the Sector. Remember, just 1% of outperforming the S&P 500 each year can have a ground impact to your nest egg. Weâll take on that exercise in an upcoming post, but for now, letâs dig in on individual stocks that have rising earnings estimates and a rising 1-month chart as a good place to find potential buys. Make sure you dig in further on business fundamentals after that before pulling the trigger. Retrospective commentary - September 14th 2026 As you know if you have read KTS #2, #3 and #5 as well as our very first publication â the self-proclaimed greatest post on this platform, "They Are Telling Us â So What Are You Waiting For?" â select areas of the market, the ones we pointed out, have indeed been outperforming ever since we started sharing our strategies and knowledge. But this is Beskar 101 and as this KTS #6 suggests, we have much more potential than just being ETF pickers. Choosing the right sector is just picking the low hanging fruit. Still better than the rotten and crushed apples on the ground (i.e. Index Funds), but not as good as the crispy and juicy hidden gems. Which we thrive for. We pointed out in this KTS #6 that we would be in a momentum, stock pickers' market at that TIME. Beskar, can you give us some retrospective performance on your picks?? How did that âdigging for individual stocksâ go for you, huh? Did you find the juicy and crispy hidden gems? Of course we did. If you take the TIME to dig into the early transactions logged on Blossom when we started sharing our journey, youâll recognise the tickers in the chart below. All our early followers can confirm to you that these are all stocks that Beskar Capital was accumulating. $FTI , $USAS , $EOSE , $RYCEF ⌠when you think of these stocks, you automatically think: BESKAR CAPITAL. Just like Coca-Cola immediately evokes Warren Buffett, or Dunkin Donuts Peter Lynch. All right, enough talking. Take the TIME to study the chart attached. Okay, Beskar, I see you. All these green columns definitely outperformed their sectors/subsectors (that are shown in blue just right of each stock in the chart). Indeed they did. And not by a narrow margin. We mentioned that outperforming the S&P 500 by a mere 3% has massive consequences for your returns. It can fast-forward your retirement by A DECADE. Now imagine what HUNDREDS of percent of outperformance can do in 10 years! It can be life-changing. It truly can. If you want to know more, I suggest you read this post: https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Why-Outperforming-the-SandP-500-Index-Matters__POST-1712844746313-WeQtSmOp_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML You see, most sectors/subsectors have a few workhorses that drive the whole sectorâs performance. These workhorses pull the dead weight (poor sector performers) within the sector/subsector in order to post incredible relative outperformance for the sector versus the index. So these individual workhorse stocks???? Absolutely amazing performance. These are where we want to be. And the key to our approach is being able to read and listen to the markets to find them. This whole series, which we are sharing again up to KTS #91, is exactly about showing you how we do it⌠and how you can do it too, if you are willing to put in the work. We no longer share our trades on social media, so if you're interested in knowing what Beskar Capital is buying NOW and in discovering the crispy, juicy hidden gems, our membership gives you access to all our trades and rationales. As our members know, our portfolio has been undergoing a slow but major transformation that is not reflected on our current displayed Blossom holdings, which are not updated anymore. What about the cycle and the meltup phase you're also referring to in this KTS #6, Beskar? What about the "activity, news flow, speculation, fear, greed, and irrationality really get going" part? Well, think about the last two years, right up to this past week. The volatility, the fear, the greed, the irrationality, the news flow â it has all been on steroids, hasn't it? Liberation Day, tariffs, the federal debt, escalating geopolitical tensions, AI, precious metals⌠all of this while the market keeps recording all-TIME highs. And the volatility: we've witnessed a fair number of S&P 500 constituents moving double-digit percentages in a single DAY. Younger investors and recent market participants can't yet appreciate that this type of volatility IS NOT NORMAL. And now it's yields and inflation and WAR, while companies keep presenting a positive outlook for the future (think Oracle this past week). But it doesn't feel as safe now, does it? You feel like you should be more cautious. We can all sense that the tension is rising, that the boiling water is starting to make the lid seriously rattle. This is the meltup. This is why we are fast-forwarding the KTS series â so that investors who want to take the TIME to protect their nest egg can still do it⌠in TIME. But the tsunami is coming, and even fast-forwarded, this re-edition can't come fast enough. So if you really want to be positioned for this cycle, access to our current trades and to the most recent KTS â all available on our website â could be the best way to do so. I always give you my best. đ This is the Way! đđ
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7 Comments
Mika @goldenfit ¡ 20h
That little pink column just wants to be included so bad đđ.
à ll-ïz @shift4 ¡ 17h
This should be in the trading section
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