Citi's $600 PT research paper on $APP suggests that by 2028, the company could achieve: - Revenue: $12.92B - EPS: $27.67/share - FCF: $8.74B - Revenue: +30.5% annually - EPS: +39.6% annually - FCF: +30.6% annually On store growth... “This is the fastest weekly store growth since we began tracking the data. 3Q26 weekly store growth has been accelerating throughout the quarter and has averaged 2.7%, suggesting an average store count of ~11.8K for 3Q26.” On Hong Kong store (Wells Fargo bear case)... “The last time Hong Kong saw an acceleration in stores (between March to May), Store Leads suggested the growth was likely driven by a concentrated group of dropshippers. This time, we believe ~70% of Hong Kong’s growth is driven by true new customers following ShopX on Sept 17, where AppLovin was the Title Sponsor.” Now, this next part is very important, because it establishes Citi's forward looking sentiment given the recent fear hitting the stock price: “many investors believe the 3Q26 guide (of 7% to 8% sequential growth) may be too aggressive. We think this fear is misguided given: 1) 2Q often has the slowest growth of the year and... 2) 2Q26 did not benefit from an Axon model improvement (which was introduced in July 2026). As such, we believe AppLovin is well positioned to meet or exceed its 3Q26 guidance.” Finally, they dip into projections and multiple expansion: “Longer-term, we expect eCommerce to eventually overtake gaming as the primary driver of the firm’s topline growth given: 1) eCommerce has a larger TAM relative to gaming, 2) attractive ROAS from existing e-commerce clients, and... 3) a potential acceleration in client onboarding (organically or through tuck-in M&A).” Continued... “Our target price on AppLovin is $600 per share. This is akin to ~29x 2027E price-to-FCF.” $APPS
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9 Comments
Aron Sarit
@ajtfsa · 20d
then why it’s going down everyday?
NickMtb
@nickmtb · 20d
This stock can only bounce back on earning. Need to confirm it's growth. Till then, am watching on sideline. GL
Benjamin Bauvois
@laurenzo · 20d
and yet the stock is going down more and more everyday ......
Brian McDonald
@intothematrix · 20d
Do you have a link to the paper that you can share?
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