Macro Update: By the numbers (week-ended 11-Sep)
4.8%: high end of Deloitte's projected increase in 2026 holiday sales vs 4.1% in year-earlier period (Reuters)
5.38%: this week's peak 30-year Treasury yield, highest since Jun-04
7.07%: average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage according to Mortgage News Daily, highest since May 2025 (CNBC)
9.7%: decline in per employee spend on AI for top 1% of firms in August, according to Ramp (X)
23%: decline in Saudi oil production in August amid disruption from Houthis
26%: probability Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by year-end (Polymarket)
30%: SaaS y/y revenue growth, above prior highs from summer 2023, according to Stripe
44%: share of the vote far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secured in Saxony-Anhalt state election vs 17.5% for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
68%: hyperscaler debt issuance as a percent of new Treasury long duration borrowing this year, or $303B in ten-year equivalents, according to JPMorgan
80%: ratio of US NIIP liabilities (ROW's holdings of USD assets) to the sum of all ROW net creditor nations' NIIP assets, according to Nomura
86.5%: probability of a 25 bp Fed rate hike at the September FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch)
98%: capacity utilization at US refineries for the latest week, highest since 2018
123%: Goldman Sachs estimate of US debt-to-GDP ration by 2035 vs current 100%
21: weeks that Citi's US Earnings Revisions Index has been positive, longest since Sep-21, according to Schwab (X)
29: bp contribution of wireless phone services, or more than half of the 0.51% increase in August supercore CPI, according to ACGL economists (X)
38: gigawatts of data center capacity Microsoft reportedly targeting by 2032, up from ~12 gigawatts now (Bloomberg)
1.62M: inventory of existing homes in August, the highest since late 2019
2.5M: bpd decline in global oil demand estimated by IEA, up 940K from prior estimate and largest decline 2020 pandemic
$1,999: starting price of new iPhone Duo (foldable)
$5,000: dividend President Trump pledged to every US adult if Republicans win midterms
$14.2B: outflow from US equities over last three weeks, the biggest since January according to BofA
$5.19B: 10- to 20-year Treasuries purchased in Treasury's buyback operation on Thursday
$6B: size of the 9-Sep buyback operation announced by Treasury on Wednesday vs $4B+ announced on 19-Aug
$54B: China finance ministry injection into state-owned banks and insurers
$517B: compute deals secured by Anthropic in 11 months (The Information)
~$1.2T: estimated cost of President Trump's dividend pledge
