September is in the books, and it’s been an interesting period for the portfolio. YTD, my portfolio is up 13.95% versus 13.75% for SPY. Since I began tracking this portfolio on July 13, 2023, my return is now +102.08% versus +86.76% for SPY, equivalent to 22.55% annualized versus 19.89% for SPY. I actually crossed the +100% mark a couple of months ago, so getting back above it isn’t a new milestone. What has been more interesting recently is what’s happening underneath the portfolio. There has been quite a bit of movement between individual holdings. Meta has appreciated significantly and has offset weakness in some of my other positions, particularly Booking Holdings and Intuit. I’m also spending more time thinking about something that could have much longer term implications: AI disruption. I haven’t made a definitive decision yet, but I’m considering reducing or potentially exiting my positions in Booking Holdings and Intuit as I continue to reassess their long term competitive advantages in an AI driven world. The more assignments I give AI agents, the more I see how dramatically the way we interact with businesses could change. Travel is a good example. Meta’s new Muse agent can research a trip, compare options and prices across the web, and even make bookings. If an AI agent can search across providers and find the best combination for me almost instantly, I have to ask myself how dependent consumers will remain on going directly to an online travel agency’s website. That doesn’t automatically mean Booking Holdings loses its moat. Booking itself is investing heavily in AI and argues that its enormous supply network, data and relationships with millions of travel partners remain important competitive advantages. But as an investor, I need to continuously question whether the moat I originally invested in is getting stronger or weaker. I’m asking similar questions about Intuit. Intuit is aggressively building its own AI agents and sees AI as an opportunity, not simply a threat. The question for me is whether those advantages remain as valuable when increasingly capable general purpose AI agents can perform more of the work consumers and businesses currently rely on specialized software to do. No decisions yet. I’m still doing the work. I haven’t made any decisions yet. I’m still looking at both companies and trying to figure out if my original reasons for owning them still make sense with how quickly AI is changing things
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3 Comments
Jeffrey
@investor282 · 18d
Not sure where the muse hype is I guess I’m too old to be early adopter now 😂
Nate
@hoodnate · 18d
The question you keep asking about whether the moat is getting stronger or weaker really stuck with me. I never thought about AI agents potentially booking travel directly instead of people going to a travel site.
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