Always trying to take a step back and look at the big picture and scan for opportunities… yesterday I ran an exercise across all 101 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 to see which ones are in a death cross and which are in a golden cross. (Python script did the heavy lifting using data from Yahoo finance) To explain how this works for those not familiar with the concept… this is a methodology to monitor average closing prices over the last 50 trading days and compares it with the average over the last 200 days. When the 50 day climbs above the 200 day, that's a golden cross, a sign short-term momentum has turned up. When it drops below, that's called a death cross and a is generally a bearish signal of a continued downward trend. So the script tracked the moving averages for all NASDAQ 100 stocks except for SPCX and HONA which were recently listed and don’t have 200 days of trading. Hope that intro got you excited to see the results of the research exercise… we will cover top death cross names and top golden cross names in 2 separate posts… starting with the doom and gloom. (Maybe PUT candidates for those who trade options? 🤔) First I’ll start with the 3 worst performing stocks that are in the deepest state of death cross meaning they are sitting at a significant gap below their 50 and 200 day averages. ☠️🪦⚰️ Since this script ran yesterday some negative momentum has continued and numbers might be even worse now. 1. $APP - Death cross since March Yesterday: $254.91 50DMA: $295.8 200DMA: $417.76 Price vs. 200DMA: -39% 2. $ALNY - death cross since Feb. Yesterday: $174 50DMA: $237.8 200DMA: $286.5 Price vs. 200DMA: -39.3% 3. $CRWV - death cross since Jul. 28th Yesterday: $60.74 50DMA: $80.15 200DMA: $91.52 Price vs. 200DMA: -33.6% Notable mention: $RKLB - death cross since Aug. 27th Yesterday: $59.1 50DMA: $64.59 200DMA: $80.02 Price vs. 200DMA: -26.1% This one was really disappointing for me one of my biggest holdings and I exited this week for a minor loss as I no longer hold the same levels of convection until more clarity on the Neutron launch progress is demonstrated… until then the re-rating catalyst I built my thesis around has lost its steam and will continue to monitor for signs of it snapping back to life before re-entry. NFLX, INTU, FER are all also in a death cross still spiraling downwards but still a little less severe. —— Now the next 3 companies just crossed into death spiral only this week and could still snap out of it if momentum shifts… these are ones to watch next week to see how they lean. 1. $GOOGL - as shocking as it sounds it flipped into death cross just yesterday Oct. 29 Yesterday: $283 50DMA: $340.29 200DMA: $340.94 Price vs. 200DMA: -16.8% 2. $BKNG - flipped into death cross Oct. 22 Yesterday: $150.43 50DMA: $172.5 200DMA: $177.13 Price vs. 200DMA: -15% 3. $AXON - flipped Oct 23 Yesterday: $438.05 50DMA: $467.17 200DMA: $479.84 Price vs. 200DMA: -8.7% There you have it folks a list of possible top candidates for continued decline… I’d say Google is the most likely to flip back into safe zone within coming weeks. My personal observation (and this is completely my POV not based on science) is that once a stock passes 30 days on a death cross or a golden cross trend the price performance will most likely continue on the same trajectory of decline or growth for months to follow… something major breaking or a major positive catalyst will be the thing to break the trend. In plain english if it stays dead 30 days it will most likely a falling knife and if it stays gold for 30 days it is most likely a rally upwards. Now are you interested in learning about the other side of the spectrum the companies with the ever exciting GOLDEN cross forming to show growing momentum and positive price performance ? I’ll be dropping it tomorrow, so I’d invite you to follow to keep track when it’s posted. Not financial advice, DYOR
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13 Comments
Andy
@violetandy · 8h
Looking forward to the golden crosses!
Sam
@snieuwold · 9h
Moe dropping huge insight yet again! I haven’t dabbled in a put yet, but I’ve got some research to do this weekend I guess 🤔
Nate
@hoodnate · 5h
your 50 day versus 200 day explanation finally made death crosses click for me
Dani @dangus · 10h
Market is scary red. please give us some hope with GOLDEN cross.
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