Gold at $4,400 and $NEM Is Still Cheap — Here's Why It Just Popped Newmont is the world's largest gold miner delivering maximum leverage to gold at all-time highs above $4,400/oz — and at just 15x earnings, it's still trading like a value stock despite a 63% one-year run. What They Do & Why It Matters Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, operating mines across the U.S., Canada, Australia, Ghana, Peru, Suriname, and beyond. Founded in 1921, Newmont sits at the center of every gold bull market — when gold moves, Newmont moves more. That's exactly what's playing out right now. With gold at $4,404/oz — a new all-time high — Newmont's operating margins are expanding at a pace that makes the company's 15x P/E look like a value stock. The market is still catching up to what $4,400 gold actually means for the bottom line. Financials Snapshot $124.37 Price (+2.1%) $131.0B Market Cap 15.4x P/E Ratio $4,404 Gold Spot Price 0.84% Dividend Yield $76.05–$135.29 52-Week Range Bull Case Every $100 increase in the gold price adds roughly $800M–$1B to Newmont's annual operating cash flow. At $4,400/oz — more than triple their all-in sustaining cost of ~$1,300/oz — Newmont is printing money. The company is up approximately 63% over the past year and still trades at only 15x earnings, a valuation more typical of a slow-growth utility than the world's premier gold mining franchise. Gold mining stocks as a sector trade at a 20-year discount relative to the gold price itself, meaning the mean-reversion trade is alive. The Fed hiking cycle keeps inflation anxiety elevated, which is structurally bullish for gold as a reserve asset. Newmont pays dividends quarterly and continues to expand its production base through acquisitions. Bear Case Gold's $4,400 price already embeds significant geopolitical and inflation risk premium. If the Xi-Trump summit on September 24 goes well and global risk appetite improves, gold could give back some of its run as investors rotate into risk assets. Newmont's operations span politically complex jurisdictions Ghana, Suriname, Papua New Guinea, where permitting delays, labor disputes, or government royalty changes can hit production targets. The stock is also up 63%+ over the past year, so any gold price softening would get amplified on the downside. What to Watch The Xi-Trump summit (September 24) is the nearest-term catalyst, a positive outcome could pressure gold as a safe haven, while a breakdown in talks would likely send gold higher. Also watch the next FOMC meeting (October 27–28): additional rate hikes would reinforce the inflation hedge narrative for gold. Newmont's Q3 2026 earnings will be the first full quarter capturing $4,000+ gold across all its operations — those numbers should be significant. Bottom Line When gold is at all-time highs and the world's largest gold miner is trading at 15x earnings, something in the math doesn't add up — and that gap usually closes in favor of the stock. Newmont is the cleanest way to own the gold bull market without touching futures or ETFs: you get production leverage, a dividend, and a balance sheet that can grow through the cycle. In an environment where the Fed is hiking, geopolitics are unsettled, and inflation is "too high and has been for too long" in the Fed chair's own words, gold has more friends than enemies right now.
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Chris Pember@goldengriddle · 1h
BANG: Barrick Agnico Newmont Goldcorp
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