Originally published on Blossom on April 5th, 2024 Please find retrospective commentary at the end. This is the base knowledge required to read and TIME the markets/securities. Not complicated by any means - but if you can’t get there on the philosophy AND the psychology, then you need to find and follow your neighborhood Conventionalist for mediocre, general public annualized returns instead. You are an Investor. You are NOT an Insider - and I’m estimating that 99% of us will NEVER be one. This is a foundational point that you MUST willingly accept. Reread the previous 3 sentences five TIMES until it sets in. If you do not accept this fact, you will be saddled with investment strategies for the poor for your lifeTIME. This path will have you spending an enormous amount of your free TIME looking at stocks, ETFS, prospectuses, and funds with an annualized average return of ~7% over your lifeTIME. If this is acceptable, acknowledge your laziness or lack of interest in above average portfolio returns and jump in to your favorite S&P 500 product. Definitions. INSIDERS are all company officers and directors at all companies, Institutions (that pool other people’s money together and make investment decisions with it), and some other privileged people (select sell-side analysts given favor by company officers when they cheer the company line or story). INVESTORS on the other hand is us retail investors - or everyone else. Fact #1: The INSIDERS command ~78% of the daily trading volume. So that leaves ~22% of the daily trading volume executed by us INVESTORS. And their impact is even less on price changes as they frequently debate amongst themselves, canceling strong buy or strong sell support. Fact #2: CURRENT Market price charts and individual ETF/stock price charts discount future events and news by anywhere from 3 (1 quarter) to 9 months (3 quarters), but, on average 6 months (2 quarters). This is because INSIDERS know more about the company’s forward prospects than news that is publicly available AND they command the lion share in trading volume. A price chart is simply a record of the supply and demand relationship of shares between the INSIDERS and the INVESTORS. When stocks are moving sideways, the supply-demand between INSIDERS and INVESTORS is BALANCED. INSIDERS are either ACCUMULATING shares from INVESTORS in anticipation of the next move up in stock price, or DISTRIBUTING shares to INVESTORS getting ready for the next drop in stock price. The key takeaway is that INSIDERS are the ones controlling the stock price movement. When a stock/ETF is rising, there are simply not enough shares to go around for all of the available demand for them. Conversely, when the stock/ETF price falls, there are more trying to exit a stock than willing buyers. Again, the key takeaway is that the INSIDERS control stock/ETF price movement. In order to consistently realize double-digit, annualized returns, you must acknowledge that you do not have any power to be a market maker. You must resign yourself to read, listen, and follow the market makers. Much like a barnacle on a whale. Figure out how to tie yourself to a winning horse. This means checking your pride at the door and realize all the analysis and number crunching you do cannot influence the direction you think a stock will move IF the INSIDERS think otherwise. You simply cannot go head-to-head and beat them. There’s no such David and Goliath stories on Wall Street. It is a shrewd place where INVESTORS are constantly having their capital transferring from INVESTORS to INSIDERS. But the advantage we have, there are no limitations to when, what and how much we can buy/sell. This is the huge advantage that Buffett and Lynch talk about frequently. But again, you must accept that you cannot move markets with hope - you will get absolutely slaughtered. You must learn to read and listen to the markets – to realize AMAZING annualized returns. Going forward, we will touch on this frequently as we go into specific stocks, events, pullbacks, bounces, etc. It is all right there recorded in the ticker tape for all to read and see. Can’t wait to share the specifics once this is digested carefully. Maybe give this another reread....to permanently ingrain in the brain. Retrospective commentary - September 25th 2026 Still one of the most referenced KTS - if not THE MOST referenced KTS post - in Beskar Capital’s rationales and commentaries. Like we said, this is one “to permanently ingrain in the brain.” In the same spirit of KTS #10 retrospective commentary, you can constantly see all the TIME posts and comments that disregard this foundational aspect. People defending stocks or a thesis solely based on their opinions, with ZERO regard for their role as an INVESTOR. And when challenged on their rationale – which usually has no regard for money flows, fundamentals, or the cycle/secular trends – they will frequently ghost on a reply, or something like they believe their stock will go up because they like it. Talk about a strong thesis? 😂🤣 Hope is not a plan - I can tell you that! 👍 In isolation, a stock can have the most fantastic fundamentals in the company’s history…..but if the wolves ain’t bidding for it……the stock ain’t goin’ up! 😂 This can happen for years!!! Likewise, a dogshit company with no path to profitability can see its stock price go to the moon! 🌛 Acknowledgement of this phenomenon is an understanding of your role as a mere INVESTOR. As soon as you relinquish your stubbornness, you’ll be able to improve your portfolio’s performance. There is a difference between being a contrarian and positioning yourself where the puck is going by pairing up with EARLY INSIDERS vs buying a chart that simply looks like it’s bottoming. Ask any $SOFI or $LULU bag holder, and you can currently see them in action just like a zoo animal! 😂🤣 These foundational KTS posts have flown under the radar, and I am very glad to repost them and give new followers – and long term followers – the chance to reassess their understanding of the basics. Know your place as a market participant and accept that YOUR OPINIONS DO NOT INFLUENCE A STOCK’S DIRECTION. Understand and respect that, and you’ll be better off than most of your peers. I always give you my best. 🏆 This is the way! 🏄🌊
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9 Comments
CoderDonna @coderdonna · 14d
I like these re-postings. I've read the KTS multiple times, but it's still helpful to absorption to see them and read them again.
Connor
@connorj · 14d
One of the best KTS out there
Moe
@moe_on_margin · 14d
Love the reposting and commentary… KTS #11 is pure gold!
Andy
@violetandy · 13d
What is KTS?
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