RE-POST KTS #13: Macroeconomic Tool

Originally published on Blossom on April 8th, 2024

Please find retrospective commentary at the end.

We have come to accept that INSIDERS command ~78% of the daily trading and thus control the market. And we have come to accept that the market’s current prices discount future news by ~ 6 months - news that is both publicly available...and news that is NOT publicly available.

So how can we compete with INSIDERS?

We can’t. Accept it.

Nothing you can do gives you a computed first in advantage as a stock/ETF begins to rise. You can be first in.....but you have no control of TIME - the INSIDERS control that and we’ve come to accept that. And TIME is critical to returns (e.g. 10% in 3 months versus 10% in 3 years).

So we aren’t getting access to specific company news that INSIDERS get. BUT, we can tune in to current macroeconomic events that form their investment decisions in REAL-TIME. By doing this, we can understand the WHY in Wall Street activity as we read the ticker tape. It allows us to pull the trigger soon after we see the INSIDERS making moves. While it won’t permit us to beat ALL INSIDERS, it will allow us to beat MANY INSIDERS and MOST ALL INVESTORS.

My recommendation for just 10 minutes per day to get this edge: A subscription to The Economist. As with 90% of news media, you will have to filter the liberal opinions from the facts - but you are good at that by now! The Economist has a daily 5 takeaways in world events delivered to your inbox (with vast resources of additional articles, links, etc. If your passion and interest extends beyond building your investment toolbox).

Keeping up with world economics is mandatory for consistent annualized double-digit returns. Economics influence supply chain, allow us to understand supply and demand relationships, wars, and how policies (stupid ones are best) are constantly creating investment ideas in, to some, as obscure stock picks.

Cost: $250 per year (used to be $55 at the turn of the century). You will easily recover this investment each year from just a single trade pairing as we cover how to read and TIME the markets.

In general, most economists are not wealthy but great at reading and explaining why in financial history – whether recent or historical. Traders make fun of them. And as a group they aren’t the best forecasters and they have a terrible track record with markets. In fact, I only know a few extremely wealthy economists (we will get to them later in KTS).

Recent examples that would have created wealth for you had you been tuned in AND with knowledge of reading the ticker tape, please? How about jumping on $VRT when it was in its teens (now $80’s) with insight that AI hardware would be first to leave the gate? Or how about when the price of oil was actually negative in March 2020 and $NOG ‘s stock’s price was being accumulated around 50 cents per share? Imagine buying $XOM for $33 per share. I did with high confidence and low risk because I was tuned in to the macroeconomic environment. How about initiating a position in $DXJ and $DXJS , $MFG , $MUFG , and $SMFG in January 2023 when BOJ governor announced a plan to levy penalties on Japanese companies if they didn’t start buying their shares back and dramatically increase their dividends? Warren and Charlie upped their stakes in Japanese trading companies 6 months later and announced their undervaluation to the world. These are just some examples that formed my current holdings but I have been routinely using this Macroeconomic tool for over 25 years.

How about some examples going forward? Did you know we are currently realizing and reversing the world’s 17-year low in Copper inventories, which is critical to so many applications? So that allows us to jump on $TGB and $IVPAF and many more when we read the INSIDERS buying in their ticker tape.

So many more coming....

Did you know natural gas has been negative since the beginning of March this year???? Did you know that the unofficial unemployment rate in China is 47% (likely due to single (spoiled) child policy? Did you know their population I’d falling off a cliff and they can’t stabilize it? Did you know there is a vacancy glut of both residential and commercial real estate? Did you know that the stock:commodity ratio is at an ALL-TIME imbalance and that there’s always a mean reversion? Look for my future trades to reflect when the INSIDERS start buying.

We are currently watching all of these developments WITH the INSIDERS. And while we accept we can’t beat them all, we know we can beat most and definitely outperform our fellow INVESTORS.

Get yourself a solid macroeconomic tool. It will give you confidence and let you sleep peacefully at night when used in combination with reading markets for INSIDERS buying and selling (which we are in process of demonstrating in KTS).

My aim is to help all.

Retrospective commentary - September 30th 2026

Just this past Sunday, we published KTS #117 for our members, an amazing doubleheader KTS that aimed to check in on the current state of the real estate/banking crisis cycle and the macroeconomic environment. We shared our view on the Fed rate decision, markets, yields, oil, geopolitics, and more. KTS #13 was extensively used to support and guide our views.

At the risk of repeating myself, these first KTS posts are foundational to our approach and are constantly used to generate amazing double-digit annualized outperformance over fellow INVESTORS.

Since this publication, copper prices have surged over 50%, $COPX over 85%, and $TGB over 250%!!

And to prove that this KTS series is ACTIONABLE, you can find attached a table of all my transaction history for $TGB . Take a moment to look at the price levels at which the major accumulation occurred… $1.55… $2.08… $2.45. Do I need to remind you what $TGB’s current share price is?

It closed at $8.88 yesterday. 👍

A TOTAL WIN 🏆

You can find at the bottom of this post ALL the transaction links in the same chronological order as the table for $TGB .

$IVPAF has been a poor performer, down more than 30%, but for various reasons that are intrinsic to the company itself and unrelated to copper and the broader copper-related equity group. However, other KTS tools flashed red for us, and we ended netting major capital gains right before it started underperforming $COPX and $TGB …proving once again that KTS tools allow us to successfully READ and LISTEN to the markets.

You can find the links to the $IVPAF sell transactions here:

Sold @ $13.31 for a +25.6% gain in 8 months on 11/26/2024 (50% trim).
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Locking-In-Profits-in-Ivanhoe-Mines__POST-1732636146910-ieSFmbhg_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

Sold @ $11.07 for a +4.5% gain in 11 months on 02/20/2025 (15% trim of remaining shares).
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Trimmed-Another-125percent-of-Ivanhoe-Mines__POST-1740063161405-u0tFtF9c_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

Sold @ $10.41 for a -1.7% loss in 11 months on 02/24/2025 (43% trim of remaining shares).
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Sold-more-Ivanhoe-Mines__POST-1740407796450-jNKDC7dP_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

Sold @ $10.15 for a -4.25% loss in 11 months on 02/27/2025 (sold out).
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Goodbye-Ivanhoe-Minesfor-now__POST-1740667031995-Ywp1659p_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

Furthermore, last Monday, $IVPAF founder Robert Friedland said this on X:

"After many years of not fully understanding the enormous challenges we're facing in the copper market, we are FINALLY starting to see more realistic price targets.

Last night, analysts at @BMO raised their copper price forecast to ~$18,000 per tonne by 2030… 50% above what the rest of the street believes. Despite the many factors behind their upgrade, one key catalyst is the "freight train of capex" necessary to support existing mine output.

Copper miners today need to "spend more to stay"… our industry needs to spend considerably more on sustaining capex to offset declining grades as we mine increasingly challenging ore bodies. But we are still only at the foothills of the Himalayas…"

You'll find the BMO copper price forecast attached to this post, the chart Mr. Friedland used to support his comments.

Here is the link to his post: https://x.com/robert_ivanhoe/status/2104573625001226298?s=20

A few weeks ago, we also made a post in the Beskar Stead, our private community feed available to our website members, about China's economy and the reliability of its economic data. Guess what supported our post? An article from The Economist!

We also currently run two research groups with our website members. These groups actively monitor and gather information using KTS #13 to gain insight into where the puck is going, allowing us to identify investment opportunities… ahead of our fellow investors.

Teaching how to fish instead of giving the fish away! 🎣🐟

These are just a few examples of how we constantly use KTS #13 as feedstock to generate investing ideas.

While most retail investors I see are either confused or overwhelmed by the news flow, my 36+ years of investing allow me to separate what is relevant from what is noise in the ever-increasing density of news flow.

Learning how to do so takes TIME…but gives you an edge.

So why not fast-track your learning curve? Learn how at beskarcapitalkts.com

I always give you my best. 🏆

This is the Way! 🏄🌊

***

$TGB (Formerly Known as Taseko Mines Now Trekor Metals) TRANSACTION LINKS:
https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/SOLD-HALF-OF-ALL-CALL-LEAPS-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1771517967406-NYWjq187_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/TrancheBOUGHT-20-MORE-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1768236443170-3hZ1iDQs_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Significant-Accumulation-of-Taseko-Mines-Stock__POST-1767906737199-Mgce78gl_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-20-MORE-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1767905092756-humGiz5J_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-4-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1767641652505-mK04QS7d_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1767042061151-8RG6L4X1_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1767022973109-R0snAuA6_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-EVEN-MORE-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taesko-Mines__POST-1766777403069-9EsorZRQ_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1766585457130-Dmga5tuo_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1766517064152-R3pqMDsG_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-3-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1766168046952-7NNI6E92_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1761066391610-ZoeXTruq_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1758548712732-d6f8GdXI_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1756842077579-mRYgsCif_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-1-CALL-LEAP-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1756235199185-ezCwgc72_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1756224425150-HHnRtUJH_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Pyramid-Accumulation-into-Taseko-Mines__POST-1755889383834-sl1dOWNt_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-8-CALL-LEAPs-in-Taseko-Mines__POST-1755889170101-wrLlbTjE_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/BOUGHT-3-CALL-LEAPs-on-Taseko-Mines__POST-1754595133734-wy1jqmHX_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/Accumulating-Taseko-Mines__POST-1742909643163-4GremX8c_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/More-than-Doubling-Position-in-TGB__POST-1714068350722-4wjgTCav_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/TGB-and-IVPAF-I-will-go-with-more-TGB-first__POST-1711542636264-neINwRSC_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

https://www.blossomsocial.com/posts/TGB-Technical-Breakout-for-Fundamentally-Strong-Co__POST-1709740317090-lnKuRAig_qoQV3QbaHcPIAvML

5,196 views

8 Comments

Mika @goldenfit · 9d

That's a banger re-post. Thank you!!!

Mason Nordli@mnordli22 · 9d

Love trekor metals I sold it last month…
I visited their project yellow-head an hour outside of Clearwater in interior BC
Seems they got a good thing going for them

Chris @thebeast1988 · 7d

Which Spartan is making noise in the library

TC @teresad · 8d

Love reading these re-posts! Thank you!

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