Here are 2 stocks to watch: $MP is the rare earth one. Rare earths make the magnets that go into missiles, fighter jets, EV motors, and now humanoid robots, and China controls almost the entire supply, around 90% of the processing and 94% of the magnet manufacturing. MP runs Mountain Pass in California, the only scaled rare earth mine in the country, and it's the one company doing the whole chain here at home, from mining to finished magnets. What changed the story is the Pentagon stepping in directly. The Department of Defense is now MP's largest shareholder and set a price floor of $110/kg on NdPr. That matters because for years China would just drop prices to undercut any American producer until they went under. The floor takes that risk off the table. On top of that, MP has offtake deals with both Apple and GM and is building a "10X" plant in Texas targeting around 10,000 tons of magnet capacity. Revenue is up 72% and NdPr production is doubling. The stock is at $51, down from about $100 last year, but now with the US government backing the downside. $LPTH is the smaller one, and this is where it gets interesting. Germanium is the key material in infrared and thermal lenses, which is what night vision, drone cameras, and missile seekers all rely on, and China controls the supply. LightPath built a glass called BlackDiamond that does the same job without any germanium, so it sidesteps China entirely. And China keeps tightening the screws on exactly the optics defense needs. Germanium prices keep climbing, and just last month an executive at a Chinese germanium supplier was detained for trying to dodge export controls, which shows how serious the enforcement has gotten. Every move like that makes BlackDiamond more valuable. The orders are already rolling in: an $18.2M infrared camera contract, an $11M counter-drone order, and $13M in optical assemblies. They're also selling off their China operations to become a fully Western supplier. Revenue is up 87% and the stock is up over 400% this year. $MP$LPTH
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5 Comments
sravy @sravy · 20h
What do you think is the entry point for both?
Manmeet singh@msingh1996 · 1d
Good to see you back here charan. Thanks for insight🤙🏽🤙🏽
