Hermès makes a bag that takes one artisan 16 hours, allocates it to customers it chooses, never discounts, and grew 8.9% last year while LVMH shrank. It earns a 41% margin, has no debt and €12.9 billion in cash. The shares have halved from the February 2025 high. Not one profit warning along the way. So I built the DCF, ran the reverse DCF, and priced three scenarios for 2028. The result surprised me: at €1,457 the market is still paying for ten years of 10% growth from a company whose own boss says capacity grows 6% to 7%. Here is the full deep dive, with ten charts and every assumption shown. https://cycledesk.substack.com/p/hermes-hesay-the-shop-that-will-not?r=7unzzg&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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