Fed Meeting 09/19 - Market Making
Fed hike fears are overran. 1 month ago odds were 44% for hike. Now looking at 60% . Material in between: Headline read on Labor market report very strong + jackson hole speech. Job gains in August were 98% women and was concentrated in Food Services and Drinking and Local Government Education but tripled expectations at 162k. This isn’t necessarily supportive of sustainable or effective socioeconomic growth. So thing is big picture is Fed Policy is dual mandated. Trump knows this this is why either half of the mandate can have quality at anytime but not both. Oil/inflation too hot but jobs report hot as well or oil/inflation cooling or managed short term but jobs report cold. Warsh please Trump which = no hike. End of year odds for hike 1 month ago were also 44%.
