My personal belief is that GOOG has the highest chance to “win” at ai. They were the first and are still the only company fully vertically intergrated with AI from the chips all the way to the model layer.
They have:
-TPU (have been developed for 10 years) reducing inference costs
- Google cloud - huge chip access (at reduced costs due to not paying NVidia mark ups) plus when AI demand grows they win. Regardless of the model used
- they have GEMINI which is not a frontier model atm but still a top tier model none the less
- distribution - the largest majority of internet traffic runs through Google - that’s a lot of eyeballs (search, YouTube, Gmail) Gemini already effective intergrated across products
- data - this is the least talked about and most undervalued source of value creation that they have. Google owns the most expensive and in-depth data of any company on earth. This is great for training and utilising AI deployment.
For this I’m willing to pay a premium valuation (the current PE is misleading. The one time anthropic gain skews the numbers)
