Morning Briefings
Gold is the clearest beneficiary of the post-election macro mix. Spot gold is up 1.8% to about $4,133.86 an ounce, extending a rally that took it above $4,100. The mechanism is straightforward: lower yields increase the relative appeal of a non-interest-bearing asset, and any softening in the dollar would further support demand from non-US buyers. Even with the dollar steady this morning, the direction of longer yields is doing the work.
For policy expectations, the market is still pricing roughly an 80% probability of a 25 basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike next month, with one additional hike priced in 2027. That keeps the bar high for a sustained duration rally and raises the importance of near-term data. The next major macro catalyst is Friday's US payrolls report, which will be pivotal for whether the market treats this week's rotation as a temporary positioning event or the start of a broader reassessment of growth and inflation. Federal Reserve officials Beth Hammack and Tom Barkin are scheduled to speak later today; any emphasis on labor-market resilience or inflation persistence could re-steepen the front end and test the equity market's ability to broaden.
