$SONY feels like the easiest trade on the market no one is paying attention to. While it's less of a pure play than $TTWO, I like $SONY better as a trade because no GTA 6 revenue is currently priced into the stock despite $SONY taking a ~30% cut of the game on its 70%+ console market share. For context, about 40% $SONY's entire earnings as a conglomerate come from gaming, 100% of that from non hardware like digital game sales, microtransactions/add-on content, and PSN subscriptions, and no earnings growth is forecasted from GTA 6 this year. Calls are cheap, IV is low, and no one is pricing in a benefit that will structurally re-rate gaming earnings for 10-15 years based on GTA V still being the third top game played on PS5 today. I also like that a near term, unpriced god tier catalyst coincides with an already excellent, cheap business with in my view little downside, allowing me to go aggressive on options here as it's not trading at some hype multiple or in a volatile sector like AI. 17x forward PE on ~17% projected earning growth this year, 4-8% lower than what I model just from $SONY's pure margin cut of GTA 6 game sales from launch through March 2027. Things get even rosier, when we model the launch of GTA Online in 2027. This is where $SONY's real business model eats with add-on content and PSN subscriber uplift, becoming a long term, structural earnings driver for the business after the surge of copy sales are worked through. That's why I think the stock will move up not only with earnings growth, but the market soon paying the platform multiple $SONY deserves in the mid 20's, because of its pivot from hardware to high margin software. The market already paid this 25x multiple in Nov 2025 when the stock hit an ATH of $30/share for the ADR, I believe GTA 6 will have the market to pay it again on much larger earnings base, implying a new ATH ahead.
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