Thesis heading into Apple's Pro and and Tell event
Apple is at ~$343, just under its 52-week high of ~$348. On Oct 28, Apple is expected to reveal its first-ever touchscreen MacBook Pro, with an OLED display and Dynamic Island. That's a major reversal after years of keeping touch off the Mac. My call: ~5% upside (to ~$360) by mid-November. • A genuine redesign could pull forward upgrades from older MacBook owners • OLED and touch justify premium pricing, which supports margins • Earnings on Nov 2 give a second catalyst if Mac pre-orders look strong The consumer check: US shoppers are spending more than expected (September retail sales +0.8% vs 0.3% forecast), but inflation is doing much of the work. Real sales grew just 0.1%. Sentiment is near record lows, and people are especially hesitant on big-ticket purchases. That's the real test for a premium MacBook. My bet is Apple's buyers sit on the stronger side of a K-shaped economy. What would prove me wrong: • The event is already priced in (P/E ~39, trading above the average analyst target) • Apple often dips after product events ("sell the news") • Nov 2 guidance shows Mac demand or holiday sales softening The event alone won't move the stock. The event plus earnings is the real test. I'll check back after Nov 2. Not financial advice. Do your own research.
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1 Comments
Nate
@hoodnate · 12d
the sell the news pattern worries me a bit. do you hold apple or just watching for now
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