Chips just had their roughest week of 2026, and this week's inflation data decides what comes next.
Friday to Friday the Philly semiconductor index dropped about 12%, the Nasdaq 100 roughly 4.9% and the S&P 500 2.7%, while the VIX climbed from about 19 to nearly 26. The detail I keep coming back to: the 10-year yield actually ended the week lower, near 4.86%. Stocks and yields falling together looks more like doubts about growth, valuations and AI payback than a pure rates scare.
GPU, HBM and data centre demand is still there. The open question is whether hyperscalers earn a proper return on all that capex. I stay structurally positive on AI infrastructure and keep my chip ETFs, but valuation discipline matters more in the short run.
How I frame it: soft CPI and PPI prints could spark a relief rally in semis, mixed numbers likely mean a choppy recovery, and hotter inflation with rising hike odds could send the Nasdaq and chip index back to last week's lows.
How are you positioned in semis right now?
