David Steinberg walks on stage Thursday asking Wall Street for a new label for Zeta Global. In July it traded at ~3x sales. The AI infrastructure club it compares itself to ($PLTR, $SNOW, $CRWD, $DDOG, $MDB) trades at 7-34x. I went through the receipts before the event. Full 11-minute video at the bottom of this post. Here's where things stand. The promise tracker so far: - Athena (promised Oct 2025): DELIVERED. Not usable on launch day, but live for everyone by March. Zeta says about 4 in 10 of its biggest customers use it now. - Palantir, promise 1 (move every data customer onto Palantir's system in about a month): DELIVERED, per Steinberg. - Palantir, promise 2 (land one joint customer that quarter): DELIVERED. They landed two. - Palantir's $100M/yr target: IN PROGRESS. Steinberg says it's "looking super low," but two customers isn't $100M yet. - OpenAI deal size: NOT DISCLOSED. Why Wall Street isn't fully buying it (all from Zeta's own paperwork): - The comparison chart grades Zeta with one ruler and the peers with another. It's disclosed in the footnotes, but it isn't apples to apples. - Stock-based comp was bigger than free cash flow last year. It's shrinking, and they buy back shares, but it isn't fixed. - The one that worries me: Zeta's own 2026 guidance has core growth (ex-Marigold, ex-political) slowing every quarter, from the high 20s to about 20%. The pitch says "price us like Palantir." The forecast says "we're slowing down." How I'm grading Thursday, announcement by announcement: - Is there a number? - Can customers use it that day? - Does it move anything outside marketing? Where I land: bullish, but I need to see more. The product's real, the partners are real, and the business is better than the price tag. A new label isn't something you announce. It's something the market gives you. Friday I post the Catalyst Check: every promise from the stage, graded. Full preview: https://youtu.be/U8lY6ZBeCLw I own shares. Not financial advice. $ZETA$PLTR
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1 Comments
Nate
@hoodnate · 14d
I had never heard of ZETA before this, but the 3x vs 34x sales comparison really caught my eye. I love the promive the promise tracker idea, grading claims against their own paperwork feels way more honest than hype. Looking forward to the Catalyst Check on Friday, how did you first come across this company?
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