A little confession for my beauty-loving friends here: I am a fan of the $ULTA store. But I wear two hats, the customer and the investor, and lately the investor in me has been paying close attention, because beauty is one of the loudest growth stories in the market right now. Think about what is happening. K-beauty is everywhere, and social media turned instant beauty into a habit millions repeat every single day. That kind of cultural momentum shows up in the companies that sell it, and $ULTA sits right in the middle of it. The business is delivering. It just beat on its last quarter, raised its guidance for the year, and it is leaning into exactly where the young shoppers are, a TikTok Shop launch, an expanded Uber delivery partnership, and a wave of new brands. The big institutions are behind it too, more than 90% of the shares are held by the likes of BlackRock and Vanguard, and on my scanner its relative strength leads the market. Its weekly and monthly bands are still expanding from this summer's run, a sign the bigger trend has real force behind it, even as the daily sits calmly mid-range. That is a strong base taking a breather. Now the investor discipline, because loving the store is not a reason to buy the stock. Two things keep me patient. The company itself flagged slower growth in the back half of the year, and the stock screens expensive here. And the one thing my scanner wants to see is missing right now, volume. The demand has gone quiet these last few days, and a leader without volume behind it is resting, not running. So here is how I am watching it. It trades near 537.5. The line I would not want to see it lose is 500.5. And the upside I would measure against, if the volume comes back and the move gets going, is 644.9. Until the buyers show up again, it stays on my radar, strong on its base, quiet on demand. I love it as a shopper. As an investor, I am watching the sector and waiting for the tape to confirm what the trend already tells me. Not investment advice. Find more of my deep dives on my newsletter 🐝
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