The 4% Rule Has a Bond Problem
Morningstar's safe withdrawal rate for 2026: 3.9%, with a 90% chance of lasting 30 years.
A 30-year TIPS ladder at today's ~2.6% real yield pays about 4.9%, inflation-adjusted, close to guaranteed.
For a normal retirement, safety is unusually cheap right now.
Retiring at 40 is different. Over 45 years, that ladder drops to ~3.8% and ends at $0.
Early retirees aren't avoiding stock risk. They need it more.
Your thoughts?
